Skymet forecasts normal monsoon in 2024 with minimal El Nino impact

“There is a better chance of a normal and above normal and excess than below normal for sure. There is a very low chance of a below normal or drought this year,” he said.

Singh said the current indicators suggest a favorable scenario for the upcoming monsoon. "The Pacific is moving from an El Nino towards neutral and then towards La Nina. Plus, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also supportive and positive," he stated.

This neutral-to-positive shift is expected to bring about a normal monsoon season, a relief for many who depend on the rains for agriculture and water supply.

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Singh discussed Skymet's approach to forecasting, which combines long-range and short-range predictions, computing, and statistics, honed through years of experience. He acknowledged past challenges in accurately predicting month-to-month variations within the monsoon season but expressed confidence in this year's forecast.

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Skymet plans to release its mid-April update for a more detailed analysis. For now, the preliminary forecast brings good news to various sectors, particularly agriculture, which heavily relies on monsoon patterns.