The formation of a cyclonic depression in the Bay of Bengal has disrupted weather patterns, likely causing a weaker and later start to the much-awaited Northeast Monsoon, private forecaster Skymet told CNBC-TV18.
Following the departure of the southwest monsoon, India experiences the northeast monsoon or retreating monsoon which covers the southern part of the nation. Five sub-divisions of India -- namely Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala -- come under the influence of this season. Some parts of Telangana also experience changes in weather.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Skymet's Avm Sharma noted that while the onset of the retreating monsoon is typically October 20, it is delayed this year due to the presence of Cyclone Hamoon in the Bay of Bengal.
Slated as a very severe cyclonic storm as of October 24, Hamoon is likely to weaken gradually and cross the Bangladesh coast as a cyclonic storm on Wednesday, October 25, per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The disruption of weather patterns due to the cyclone is one of the primary reasons behind the Northeast Monsoon's unexpected delay. Its impact in the region lasts a few days and is expected to keep the monsoon's arrival at bay for a few more.
Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are traditionally the first regions in India to experience the northeast monsoon, and the timely onset largely depends on the arrival of substantial rainfall and increased humidity. Heavy rainfall in the two states serves as a primary indicator of the impending arrival of the Northeast Monsoon.
However, Sharma noted that, so far, these crucial elements have been absent. To gauge the monsoon's approach, meteorologists closely monitor these regions, where heavy rain is the key criterion. The anticipation centres on the expectation that rainfall will intensify, coupled with a concurrent rise in humidity levels.
The IMD has predicted scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall likely over Andhra Pradesh. If this rain picks up, it is likely that the retreating monsoon will mark its onset in India.
A report by CNBC-TV18 in September indicated that this year, India is likely to experience its first below-normal monsoon after eight years. According to IMD data, the country as a whole has recorded a rainfall deficit of 11 percent for the season i.e. from June 1 to September 6. This would make 2023 the first year of below-normal monsoon rain after eight years.
First Published: Oct 25, 2023 1:33 PM IST
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