India is likely to witness below normal monsoon rains in 2023, predicts Skymet
Mahesh Palawat, the VP-Meteorology at Skymet Weather Services, said the monsoon season this year will be weaker than usual due to multiple factors.
India is likely to witness below normal monsoon rains in 2023, Skymet said in a note on April 10. Factors other than El Nino may also hit rains, the weather agency said. Mahesh Palawat, the VP-Meteorology at Skymet Weather Services, said the monsoon season this year will be weaker than usual due to multiple factors.
“This time, we expect that monsoon will be 94 percent of long period average and El Nino will be evolving and it will be much stronger in the second half of the monsoon. Apart from El Nino, we expect the Indian Ocean Dipole — another deciding factor of the southwest monsoon that is not very positive,” he said.
Palawat added that El Nino will impact the monsoon season in August and September. The prediction for the two months is that rainfall will be 92 percent and 90 percent of the long-period average, respectively. The weaker rainfall can lead to drought-like conditions in several areas, affecting the agricultural output of the country, he said.
“As we progress further in the months of August and September, the monsoon is going to deplete or you can say monsoon rain will be much weaker. That's why we have come out with a forecast — for August, it will be 92 percent of LPA. It means 8 percent deficiency and as the monsoon will start withdrawing in September itself, monsoon rains won’t be very high during the month but still it seems to be 10 percent deficient.”
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Palawat mentioned that the southern Peninsula will get good rain and northeast India particularly Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh will also benefit but the central part of the country, particularly Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Karnataka, Vidarbha, Marathwada and western parts of Madhya Pradesh, and North India, they will remain in deficient.
He added, “Overall monsoon will be below normal, particularly these areas, and central India will get impacted more in comparison to other areas.”
For full interview, watch accompanying video
First Published: Apr 10, 2023 2:02 PM IST
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