Is the delay in monsoon arrival a cause for concern for crop production?

"So I consider that if there is a departure of more than one week either way, then it has implications. But if it is only three, four days, it doesn't matter at all for sowing," Chand said.

The Niti Aayog member also noted that a delay in the month of August can affect the condition and productivity of the crop, but it would not have a substantial impact on the total area sown.

Regarding cotton cultivation, Chand pointed out that moisture levels this year are relatively better compared to previous years. However, he pointed out issues such as susceptibility to bollworm infestations, delays in introducing new varieties and declining yields over the past few years.

"Something serious is there in case of cotton, we need to do something about it," Chand said.

These factors, coupled with market prices, pose challenges for cotton farmers which need to be addressed through technological advancements and support.

Harish Damodaran, a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and Agriculture Editor at The Indian Express, expressed worry about the low-pressure area forming over the Arabian Sea.

"I'm a little worried about this formation of this low pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea because I think they are talking about its intensification into a depression or a cyclone tomorrow," Damodaran said

He told CNBC-TV18 that if the low-pressure system intensifies into a cyclone, it could disrupt monsoon winds and reduce moisture availability. The monsoon system's revival and reorganisation would only occur after the dissipation of the cyclone.

The IMD on Tuesday afternoon warned that the low-pressure area has developed into a deep depression, which is likely to further intensify into a cyclonic storm by June 6 night.

Damodaran also noted that in 2019, despite a delayed onset, a good monsoon was observed due to the absence of El Niño. However, this year's combination of a possible El Niño in the second half is a cause for concern and likely to affect sowing patterns.

He observed two reasons behind farmers sowing less area under cotton this year: the crop's high water requirements and low market prices.

Damodaran predicted a potential shift towards crops such as groundnut and arhar (pigeon pea), which require less water and offer better market prices.

The prices of cotton have fallen to Rs 7,00 a quintile, where as last year farmers were getting Rs 10,000-12,000 per quintal. Madi prices of arhar, on the other hand, are around Rs 9,800-10,000, Damodaran claimed.

While concerns persist over the current production outlook, India is fortunate to have sufficient stock to meet immediate demands, he added. However, policymakers and agricultural stakeholders must closely monitor the monsoon's progress and its impact on crop cultivation to ensure proactive measures are in place to address any potential challenges in the agricultural sector.