Lancet report warns of a fivefold surge in heat-related deaths by 2050

Urgent health-centric climate action is advocated to transition the global economy to a zero-carbon footprint, presenting transformative opportunities for worldwide health improvements, the report mentioned.

The report’s region-wise analysis emphasises the unequal health impacts of climate change and the potential benefits of a just energy transition. Authors stress the urgency of addressing the root causes of climate change to avert grave risks to human health. With the record-high energy-related emissions in 2022 and the current trajectory expected to lead to a 2.7°Celsius temperature increase by 2100, the Lancet report underscores the precarious balance threatening current and future generations.

Marina Romanello, Executive Director of Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, asserts that the growing hazards of climate change are already costing lives and livelihoods globally. She added that projections of a dangerous future with a 2°C hotter world, emphasise the inadequacy of current mitigation efforts.

“With 1,337 tonnes of carbon dioxide still emitted every second, we aren’t reducing emissions anywhere near fast enough to keep climate hazards within the levels that our health systems can cope with,” Romanello said.

She also said that the health-centric agenda at COP28 represents a pivotal moment to garner pledges and tangible measures. Stressing the need for climate talks to swiftly and equitably transition away from fossil fuels, she asserted that realising the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement to cap global temperature rise at 1.5°C remains feasible. The prospect of a thriving and healthful future, she contended, is well within grasp.

Even at the current 10-year global average of 1.14°C heating, the analysis reveals increased health-threatening high temperatures and an 85% rise in heat-related deaths among those over 65 from 2013-2022 compared to 1991-2000.

The report outlines the cascading effects of climate change, including more frequent heatwaves, droughts and the spread of life-threatening infectious diseases. Changing weather patterns contribute to 127 million more people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity in 2021 compared to the annual average between 1981 and 2010.

Approximately 27% of surveyed cities report concerns over their health systems being overwhelmed by climate change impacts. Economic losses from extreme weather events reached $264 billion in 2022, a 23% increase from 2010-2014, the report highlighted.

In 2022, heat exposure resulted in a staggering 490 billion potential labour hours lost globally, marking an alarming 42% surge from the 1991-2000 period.

The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Report is a collaboration among more than 100 experts and over 50 organisations globally. The researchers study the climate change impact on 47 indicators and the medical journal has been publishing this report since 2015.