India witnesses driest August in the last 122 years, September rains crucial for crops

In 2022-23, rice production witnessed a drop of 6 percent at 104 million tonnes as compared to 2021-22. Now, all hopes are pinned on September. Though farmers of Central India, Western India, and south peninsula claim that it's too late now, the flowering window for most of these crops is closed, and even if it rains in September, it won't make a huge difference. But, the experts believe that if September witnesses a decent rainfall, it can revive the kharif crops.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast says monthly rainfall for September over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal. But for states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka, there is up to 40 percent chance of below normal rainfall in September.

A dry August affects kharif crops. But dry August and September affect both kharif and rabi crops. Rabi crops depend on stored water, and dry August and September affect key rabi crops rice, pulses, maize, potatoes, cumin, coriander and fruits and vegetables.

Indian government data suggests that on 31st August, live water storage available in 150 reservoirs across India was 23 percent less than last year and 9 percent less than the average of last 10 years. The overall production of both kharif and rabi depend on September's rainfall which will ultimately decide the food inflation rate in the coming months.

A recent JP Morgan report states that as of now price pressures are likely to remain contained and not broaden out. But, if September doesn't witness a near-normal rainfall, food pressures could increase and affect the inflation forecast.