This might be India's first below-normal monsoon after 8 years
India last experienced below-normal monsoon back in 2015, with a 14 percent deficiency. Since then until 2018, rainfall has been deficient but within normal levels. Rains have been either normal or surplus between 2019 and 2022. Read more for region-wise deficits and the states that could be see the worst rain deficit this year.
According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country as a whole has recorded a rainfall deficit of 11 percent for the season i.e. from June 1 to September 6. This would make 2023 the first year of below-normal monsoon rain after eight years.
If the amount of rain in a year is less than the long-term average by 10 percent, it is considered to be below normal. As of 2022, the long-term average rainfall in India, between June and September, was 87 centimetres (cm). This year, so far, the rain deficit is 11 percent.
"As per our forecast, September will witness a normal rainfall. It will make up for the August deficit to some extent but won't fully cover it. But September will perform," IMD's Director-General M Mohapatra told CNBC-TV18.
In contrast to the IMD's view, Skymet, a private forecaster, said that it will rain enough in September to improve the deficit to less than 10 percent, making it a year of normal monsoon.
Here's a chart that depicts the overall rainfall (as a percentage of the long-period average (LPA)) in India over the past 10 years:
| Year | Rainfall (% of LPA) |
| 2014 | -12% |
| 2015 | -14% |
| 2016 | -3% |
| 2017 | -5% |
| 2018 | -9.40% |
| 2019 | 110% |
| 2020 | 109% |
| 2021 | 99% |
| 2022 | 106% |
| 2023 | -11% |
Source: Down To Earth
India last experienced below-normal monsoon back in 2015, with a 14 percent deficiency. Since then until 2018, rainfall has been deficient but within normal levels. Rains have been either normal or in surplus between 2019 and 2022.
Here is a breakdown of the rainfall deficit for different parts of India from June 1 to September 6, 2023:
| Rain deficit from June 1 - September 6 | |
| Deficit (%) | |
| India | 11% |
| South Peninsula | 11% |
| Central India | 12% |
| North-West India | 2% |
| East and Northeast India | 19% |
Source: India Meteorological Department
Moreover, the data for the period from August 31 to September 6 shows the rain deficit got worse, with some regions experiencing alarmingly low rainfall:
| Region | Rain deficit fromJune 1 - September 6 | Rain deficit fromAugust 31 - September 6 |
| India | 11% | 33% |
| South Peninsula | 11% | - |
| Central India | 12% | 49% |
| North-West India | 2% | 84% |
| East and Northeast India | 19% | 58% |
Source: India Meteorological Department
However, there is a notable exception to this trend. The South Peninsula region recorded a surplus in rainfall, with an impressive 85 excess between August 31 and September 6, providing some relief in an otherwise challenging scenario.
However, Skymet's xx GP Sharma cautioned that Western India and North India are not expected to receive substantial precipitation in September.
These are some of the worst-affected states in terms of rainfall deficit:
| State | Rainfall deficit from June 1 - September 10 | Rainfall deficit from September 1 - September 10 |
| Kerala | 42% | - |
| Jharkhand | 32% | - |
| Bihar | 26% | 21% |
| Mizoram | 28% | - |
| Manipur | 47% | - |
| Uttar Pradesh | 17% | 23% |
| Madhya Pradesh | 12% | - |
| Punjab | 12% | 98% |
| Himachal Pradesh | - | 72% |
| Haryana | - | 75% |
| Rajasthan | - | 71% |
| Gujarat | - | 45% |
Source: India Meteorological Department
A shortfall in rain not only affects farmers growing crops, it also raises concerns about water storage. Live data from 150 reservoirs across the country shows that the water stored is 26 percent less than what it was at the same time last year, and 14 percent less than the average of the last 10 years.
(Edited by : Sriram Iyer)
First Published: Sept 11, 2023 1:23 PM IST
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