Countries need to stop producing more oil and natural gas within 28 years to even have half a chance of preventing global temperature averages from rising by more than 1.5C, shows a new study.
Rich countries, in particular, will have to make the change the fastest, within just 12 years, while poorer countries will have to do so within 28 years for ensuring an equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
This disparity in the timeline for ending the production of fossil fuels is due to the fact that poorer nations that generate revenue through the fossil fuel industry have very little to no alternatives present to make sure that their economies aren’t affected adversely. At the same time, rich countries are able to better weather the shock as they have other sources of income.
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"There are huge differences in the ability of countries to end oil and gas production while maintaining vibrant economies and delivering a just transition for their citizens," said Prof Kevin Anderson from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at Manchester University.
Despite this timescale, poorer nations that rely on fossil fuels will need the help of rich nations to help them transition into a carbon-free economy. But such a project might be hard to achieve considering that richer nations are still laggardly working on the transition of their energy systems.
For example, the state of Texas in the US has recently signed a law that prohibits the state government from engaging in businesses with any organization that has divested from the fossil fuel industry. Amidst a climate crisis, the state has essentially disincentivised businesses from moving away from fossil fuels. The state’s legislation is expected to be followed by similar laws being passed in other Republican-controlled states in the country.
The US is not alone in this stance. Norway, one of the nations that will need to shut its fossil fuel extraction by 2034 has categorically stated last year that the country’s oil and gas sector will not be shut but instead would be grown while the country looks for other ways to cut global emissions.
"This new study is a timely reminder that all countries must phase out oil and gas production rapidly, with wealthy countries going fastest, while also ensuring a just transition for workers and communities that rely on it,” said Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief who oversaw the 2015 Paris summit.
(Edited by : Jomy Jos Pullokaran)
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