UK economy shrinks 0.3% in three months through October

Despite the rebound in October, there is still a good chance the British economy will shrink for a second consecutive quarter in the last three months of this year, according to Martin Beck, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club. Two consecutive quarters of declining output is one definition of a recession.

Britain doesn’t have an independent body that declares recessions like in the US and Europe, which use other data like rising unemployment and job losses in their assessments.

“The near-term outlook remains gloomy, as consumers continue to struggle under the weight of high inflation and with much of the impact of this year’s interest rate rises still to be realised,” Beck said in a statement.

Output by productive industries, which range from manufacturing to mining and energy production, dropped 1.7 percent in the three months through October. Service industries, which account for about four-fifths of the British economy, fell 0.1 percent in the period.

Consumer price inflation accelerated to a 41-year high of 11.1 percent in October, fuelled by by high cost of food and energy.

The Bank of England has approved eight consecutive interest rate increases as it struggles to rein in inflation. That pushed the bank’s key rate to 3 percent from 0.1 percent a year ago.

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