Recession bottoms out in Q3, but India's FY21 GDP may shrink 8%; experts discuss

India's economy has exited a technical recession. After contracting for 2 straight quarters, GDP growth in the third quarter has turned positive but growth remains at a mere 0.4 percent. But for the full financial year, GDP could contract by 8 percent, which is worse than previous estimates and the government's budget forecast.

Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities PD, said, “I will look at the GVA number more closely, they are estimated more accurately especially if you look at the quarterly numbers so GVA at 1 percent was lower compared to 2 percent estimate we had.”

Pronab Sen, former Chief Statistician, said, “On the full year estimates, the NSO is taking a call on the fourth quarter largely. There is some information but very limited and whatever indicators they have seems to suggest that the fourth quarter is not going to be great either. Despite the fact that there is a favourable base effect that is playing out.”