Q3FY20 GDP: Here’s what you can expect
The government will release the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter on Friday. Earlier, data showed that growth in the second quarter slowed to its lowest level in over 6 years to 4.5 percent.
The government will release the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter on Friday. Earlier, data showed that growth in the second quarter slowed to its lowest level in over 6 years to 4.5 percent.
What can we expect? Will we see a recovery? A CNBC-TV18 poll showed that economists are expecting a 4.6 percent growth rate.
The 4.6 percent is better than 4.5 percent because the base quarter was not very good. It was only at 6.6 percent for Q3FY19. However, Q2FY19 was very strong at 7 percent.
For Q3FY20, agriculture is expected to see some recover at around 2.8 percent. Manufacturing growth is expected to remain muted because auto production has been affected.
In services sector, there could be some bump up because state and central governments spent enough money. Public administration is expected to do very well, the poll data showed.
There are some economists who believe that Q1 and Q2 GDP which came at 5 percent and 5.5 percent could be revised higher, but there are others who believe that there is no need to worry about the base year revision. The CSO has estimated the growth at 5 percent and one should only concentrate on that.
Principal Economic Advisor Sanjeev Sanyal expects the Q3 GDP reading to be flat. The negative side of the growth seems to have bottomed out and Q4 onwards right into the first quarter of the new financial year i.e. FY21, the government is expecting the growth to pick up.
The government is also monitoring supply side disruptions due to coronavirus real time. However, the impact of coronavirus as of now continues to be fluid, he added.
First Published: Feb 27, 2020 11:05 PM IST
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