Lockdown exit strategy: Should the restrictions be lifted at one go? What experts say

India Inc is learnt to have suggested a partial lifting of the lockdown for factories, especially in areas with a low number of cases.

However, quite a few experts are advising against an extension of the lockdown in its current form.

Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, is one of them.

In an article, Debroy has co-authored with economist Vijay Ojha, he argued that alarming numbers based on questionable assumptions should not be used to prolong the lockdown, at least not in its present form.

Even if there are 25,000 deaths, the economic costs of the present lockdown are disproportionately high. India is probably under-counting infections, but under-counting of deaths is unlikely.

The article goes on to say, “The shape of the epidemic curve in Delhi or Mumbai is not the same as its shape in Bengaluru. Lockdown is not a binary. A slide into the community transmission stage is almost inevitable, at least in some parts. But that does not warrant a continuation of the present 21-day lockdown in the middle of rabi harvesting season, with the informal sector, daily wage workers and MSMEs bearing the brunt of the lockdown."

To discuss the implications of an extended lockdown and a lockdown that is lifted in phases, Shereen Bhan spoke to Vijay Prakash Ojha, a former economics professor at IMT Ghaziabad and currently director of policy modelling association for inclusive development, Former coal and HRD Secretary Anil Swarup. Swarup also served as the head of the project monitoring group and Praveen Chakravarty, chairman of the data analytics department of the Congress.

Vijay Prakash Ojha said, “We have not said that the lockdown should definitely be called off on the April 14, we have said that when the day of decision arrives then it is possible to not extend the lockdown but in the way it is at the moment, go for a partial opening up."

"So, there could be hotspot areas identified where there is community transmission and those areas should be sealed and they are already sealed."

Areas where there is no trace of the infection could be opened up partially and cautiously so that economic activity can start, Ojha added.

Anil Swarup said, “I agree with the approach that has been adopted by Prof Debroy, I think we need not lock, stock and barrel extend everything that is going on right now and it can be done."

"Now as you mentioned in your comment that there are more than 400 districts where not a single incident, ow how about quarantining those 400 districts, control the ingress and ingress and see how economic activity can be revived in those districts."

"This can be done, it can be done geographically, it can be done functionally, but a lot of homework will be required to be done both in terms of determining those geographical areas, those industry where such activity can be brought back.”

Praveen Chakravarty said, “In the corporate world there is a term that is often used called FUD - fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Decision making in a FUD setting and that really is what is going on right now, and I agree that it is a very hard decision."

"But, there are some basic principles that we can go by. First, in my view this is not about economy versus health or rupees versus lives, it is lives versus lives. Second is the cost and benefits of a total and extreme lockdown that we are in right now. The cost seems to be fairly clear to everyone – it is not just economic cost but there are actual cost of lives in an extreme lockdown situation.”

He further added, “Are we clear about the benefits of this lockdown? Do we have enough evidence to suggest that this 21-day lockdown has achieved what it was supposed to achieve which I am still unclear about it?.”