homeeconomy NewsEconomist says FY24 growth may be lower than RBI's 6.5% forecast, pegs H2 inflation at 5%
Economist says FY24 growth may be lower than RBI's 6.5% forecast, pegs H2 inflation at 5%
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Abhishek Upadhyay, Senior Economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, delved into the latest economic data and shared their insights on the current state of inflation and sector performance in India.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Abhishek Upadhyay, Senior Economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, and Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, delved into the latest economic data and shared their outlook on growth and inflation.
Upadhyay believes growth for FY24 will be lower than the Reserve Bank of India forecast of 6.5%.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
How inflation could pan out
Abhishek Upadhyay believes inflation is likely to hover around 5% in the second half of FY24. He did not anticipate a significant upside risk in terms of food inflation.
Bhardwaj forecasts inflation for FY24 at 5.2%. She highlighted food prices as a potential area of concern and cautioned about the clear upside risk associated with food inflation.
Performance of some sectors will be robust
Upadhyay noted that certain sectors, such as capital goods, continue to exhibit strong performance sequentially, underlining their resilience in the current economic landscape.
Consumer demand is a point of worry
Bhardwaj remained skeptical about the trajectory of consumer demand, emphasising the need for caution when assessing how it will evolve in the coming months.
According to data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on October 12, India's retail inflation, as gauged by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased to a three-month low of 5.02% in September, primarily due to a decrease in food prices. This marks a return to the Reserve Bank of India's desired level of inflation, which is below 6%, following a two-month gap. In July 2023, India's CPI was at 7.44%, and in August 2023, it stood at 6.83%.
In contrast, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) reported a robust growth of 10.3% in August 2023. This is a notable improvement from August 2022 when factory output, as measured by IIP, had contracted by 0.7%.
A CNBC-TV18 Poll of economists had projected CPI at 5.5% and an IIP at 9.5% for August.
For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video
(Edited by : Shweta Mungre)
Check out our in-depth Market Coverage, Business News & get real-time Stock Market Updates on CNBC-TV18. Also, Watch our channels CNBC-TV18, CNBC Awaaz and CNBC Bajar Live on-the-go!
Cong leaders 'failed' to protect party's constitution says FM Nirmala Sitharaman in Bihar
May 21, 2024 4:01 PM
Who will succeed Modi? Oppn thinks Amit Shah will, but PM said this
May 21, 2024 2:38 PM
1100 villagers boycott Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in Odisha, here's why
May 21, 2024 10:56 AM