homeeconomy NewsEquity market rally may have sputtered but these experts share why India may remain unruffled

Equity market rally may have sputtered but these experts share why India may remain unruffled

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Neeraj Gambhir, Group Executive and Head-Treasury, Markets & Wholesale Banking Products at Axis Bank and Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank spoke at length about where rates and currency are headed both globally and in India.

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By Latha Venkatesh  Jun 27, 2023 5:00:26 PM IST (Updated)

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The rally in the equity markets that started in March and continued till mid-June appears to have taken a knock largely because four central banks last week raised rates and the FOMC earlier in its dot chart surprisingly indicated that it sees two more rate hikes in the US. Yields have risen in the US from March lows of 3.4 to 3.8. In the currency market, the rupee is caught in India between a stable to soft dollar and a continuously weakening yuan. And the RBI usually doesn’t like the rupee to strengthen when the yuan is weakening.

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Four big central banks, including of Turkey, raised rates. Bank of England raised by 50 basis points, which is the highest since the global financial crisis of 2008. And that is because their inflation came in at 8.7 percent. The Swiss National Bank was the one that was lesser expected because Switzerland is the country with the lowest inflation, but even there, people were expecting 50 basis hikes. Norway's central bank called the Norges Bank has upped rates by 50 basis points. And this, like in England, is taking the overall rate to 5 percent, which is 15 years highest since 2008.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Neeraj Gambhir, Group Executive and Head-Treasury, Markets & Wholesale Banking Products at Axis Bank and Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank spoke at length about where rates and currency are headed both globally and in India.
First up, Englander said, “The commentary that we are hearing from the central banks suggests almost a common determination that they are going to try and convince the markets that they are going to keep rates higher, and keep raising rates on the view that inflation, certainly in G10 economies is more stubborn than they had anticipated.”
Meanwhile, Gambhir said, “I do expect India to stay on a pause mode for an extended period. The reason is that our inflation is not as misbehaved as probably it's in the West. Our forecast of inflation for the current year is 4.8 percent on average, which is a shade below 5 percent. So, inflation in India is fairly well managed in that sense.”
Talking about the rupee, Gambhir expressed a cautious view, suggesting that the currency may not witness significant upward movement in the near term. Gambhir's stance reflects a more conservative approach, possibly influenced by various domestic and global economic factors.
Contrasting with Gambhir's outlook, Englander offered a more optimistic projection. He stated that he expects the rupee to experience a minor appreciation of approximately 1 percent. “The economic picture in India is far stronger than what we are seeing now in China. We expect a small appreciation in the rupee, not very large, maybe another 1 percent or so,” he said.
For more details, watch the accompanying video

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