India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates were raised by analysts across the Street after the September quarter print surpassed consensus expectations.
For the September quarter, India's GDP grew by 7.6% from last year, compared to a CNBC-TV18 poll of 7%. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said that there will be an upside to the 6.5% GDP forecast this year and that the growth momentum will continue in the December quarter as well.
The CEA also said that the high tax buoyancy shows that India may be understating its economic growth.
Goldman Sachs has increased India's calendar year 2023 growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.7% year-on-year but kept its 2024 forecast unchanged at 6.2%.
"We note potential downside risks to the 2024 growth outlook owing to the new regulatory measures by the RBI targeted at unsecured personal loans," the note said.
#GDPGrowth | Indian economy posts better-than-estimated GDP growth of 7.6% for the quarter ending September 2023 (Q2FY24). And, this has led to a raise in estimates for FY24 & CY23 by most brokerages#Economy #IndiaGDP #IndianEconomy pic.twitter.com/a2Gct0Ukb7
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) December 1, 2023
India's financial year 2024 GDP forecast has also been hiked by 50 basis points by brokerage firm Citi to 6.7%. "Overall, GDP data reaffirmed two trends — investment outpacing consumption and two-paced growth momentum," the note said.
Citi is also expecting the Reserve Bank of India to maintain a status quo on interest rates and maintain the stance at "Withdrawal of Accommodation" at the December policy meeting.
State Bank of India has also raised India's financial year 2024 GDP forecast to 7% from 6.7% earlier, while Axis Capital has raised estimates to 6.7% with upside risks.
Morgan Stanley has also raised the financial year 2024 growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4% earlier, driven by robust domestic demand. For the financial year 2025, the brokerage has maintained its estimates at 6.5%.
However, HSBC expects growth could soften from these levels due to weaker FDI inflows, a likely softness in credit growth and normalising base effects over the next few months.
In his address at the third edition of India Debt Capital Market Summit 2023, Union Minister Piyush Goyal spoke about how India was earlier categorised as a fragile 5 economy, and how the Narendra Modi government worked towards changing this.
#WATCH | Union Minister Piyush Goyal addressed the 3rd edition of India Debt Capital Market Summit 2023
He says, " All are aware that India was categorized as a fragile 5 economy. If you remember the headlines of that period, say, 3 or 4 years before 2014. Almost every month, we… pic.twitter.com/7YBv6Xpct5— ANI (@ANI) December 1, 2023
(Edited by : Amrita)
First Published: Dec 1, 2023 8:21 AM IST
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