ICICI Securities Primary Dealership said on Tuesday that it expects the GDP growth to be at 5.1 percent for the financial year 2020. This, the company said, it estimated considering there is a pickup in growth in Q3.
“We are expecting FY20 GDP at 5.1 percent. This is premised on some growth pick up in Q3, which we are seeing tracking close to 5 percent, which will be similar to Q1 growth that we got this fiscal,” said Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist, ICICI Securities PD.
“However, looking at first advance estimates because it’s mainly based on extrapolation of H1 (first half of the year) growth and then a couple of months of additional data – those numbers would weigh heavy on this estimate. So my bias would be that this number could be 5 percent or perhaps a tad below because H1 growth was so low,” he said.
On IIP numbers' front, Upadhyay said, “The IIP numbers were quite bad for October. The latest core sector numbers on aggregate basis have also contracted although that contraction is lesser than what we saw in earlier months. So bias is that the first advance estimate could be somewhat lower than 5 percent.”