The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its sixth bi-monthly policy — the first under Governor Shaktikanta Das — on Thursday.
The expectation is that either the central bank will hold the key policy rates or cut the rates by 25 or 50 basis points. One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.
Some experts believe that the budget measures such as the income guarantee scheme for farmers and the tax rebate for the salaried employees, which pushed the government to revise the fiscal deficit target from 3.3 percent to 3.4 percent, can be the key reason for the RBI to keep the rates unchanged.
Below is the trend of the change in the repo rate so far:
(Source: tradingeconomics.com)
On the contrary, some experts argued that a rate cut is possible on the basis of the latest inflation numbers. The retail inflation had plunged to an 18-month low in December 2018 to 2.19 percent.
Below is the trend of consumer inflation:
(Source: tradingeconomics.com)
The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation fell to 3.80 percent in December 2018 as against 4.64 percent in November 2018, helped by a smaller increase in food and fuel prices, government data showed.
The trend shows that as compared to the January 2018 data, the WPI has increased 0.78 percent. However, a downtrend in the inflation is seen given the latest figures, pointing to an improvement in the country's inflation.
Below is the trend of wholesale inflation:
(Source: tradingeconomics.com)
Though the inflation numbers support a rate cut, India's industrial output growth showed a sharp decline, as per the recent numbers. The industrial output growth dropped to a 17-month low of 0.5 percent in November on account of contraction in the manufacturing sector, particularly consumer and capital goods.
Below is the trend of India's Industrial output growth (Index of Industrial Production or IIP) :
(Source: tradingeconomics.com)
Every country's financial health is checked via the key economic indicator, the GDP. The Indian government revised the GDP growth rates by 110 basis points from 7.1 percent to 8.2 percent for 2016-17 and by 50 basis points from 6.7 percent to 7.2 percent for fiscal 2017-18.
According to the country's GDP trend, the GDP is steadily improving after a dip of 5.7 percent in July 2017 quarter.
Below is the trend of India's GDP:
(Source: tradingeconomics.com)
First Published: Feb 7, 2019 10:46 AM IST
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