Govt could exceed FY21 budget target for expenditure

“Expenditure will exceed the budget estimate”, they said.

The government had estimated FY21 spending at Rs 30.42 lakh crore and 55 percent of this has been exhausted by October-end, as against over 59 percent spent in the corresponding period of last year.

However, the CGA data doesn’t capture the revised estimates.

For instance, the government spent Rs 1.67 lakh crore additional cash via the first supplementary demand for grants, comprising largely of the additional expenditure on PMGKY and Atmanirbhar Bharat announcements - but this additional cash outgo also contained Rs 44,000 crore as transfer to states in the form of revenue deficit grants, which was outside the stimulus.

The second supplementary will cover the additional cash spend for Atmanirbhar 3.0 announced on November 12, comprising largely of additional fertiliser subsidy of Rs 65,000 crore for the current fiscal, among other items, which in some sense was cleaning the backlog on unpaid fertiliser subsidy dues . Thus, the tab for additional cash spend on stimulus alone, conservatively adds up to at least 2 lakh crore till date.

However a significant expenditure item, the additional food subsidy on account of PMGKY running from April-November has yet to be factored in fully.

The government sought additional cash of only Rs 10,000 crore in the first supplementary for food subsidy, although the estimated additional spend on food subsidy is likely to be Rs 1.30 lakh crore in FY21.