GDP growth for Q3FY20 expected at 4.5%, says Kotak Mahindra Bank’s Upasna Bhardwaj
Our estimates for the full year are lower than what RBI or what the government expects this year. We are at 4.7 percent and there could be a downside bias for the full year, said Upasna Bhardwaj of Kotak Mahindra Bank.
The government will release the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday. CNBC-TV18 poll shows a marginal improvement at 4.6 percent versus the previous quarter's 4.5 percent.
However, Upasna Bhardwaj of Kotak Mahindra Bank is of the view that the number would remain flat at 4.5 percent, slightly lower than the poll but there is a favorable base effect in second half, which should ideally help the H2 of this financial year.
“The high frequency data which seemed to have bottomed out around September-October still hasn't shown significant signs of improvement. So, the contraction phase still remains and that is where worry on the sequential improvement remains," she said. "If I look at a quarterly change of last year versus this year, I am still not convincingly seeing an improvement in activity for the December quarter. That is the reason why we are keeping it flat at the previous number,” she added.
According to Bhardwaj, Q4 GDP also does not look to be promising. “There is going to be some kind of a spillover from the global negative cues based on the coronavirus spillovers and that would have some kind of a bearing. We yet have to see how this really spreads into March but nonetheless, I do not think the few nascent signs that were visible in the December quarter are visible in the January numbers," she said, adding that January figures do not show a sustained improvement for this quarter and the global fears of coronavirus is expected to have bearing. So, clearly the fourth quarter also does not look promising.
“Our estimates for the full year are lower than what RBI or what the government expects this year. We are at 4.7 percent and there could be a downside bias for the full year,” she added.
First Published: Feb 28, 2020 10:25 AM IST
Check out our in-depth Market Coverage, Business News & get real-time Stock Market Updates on CNBC-TV18. Also, Watch our channels CNBC-TV18, CNBC Awaaz and CNBC Bajar Live on-the-go!
1100 villagers boycott Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in Odisha, here's why
May 21, 2024 10:56 AM
BJP issues showcause notice to Jayant Sinha, says 'party's image maligned by your conduct'
May 21, 2024 10:18 AM