India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the fiscal 2018-19 is expected to be 6.9 percent, lower than Central Statistics Office's (CSO) advance estimate of 7 percent, a CNBC-TV18 poll showed. The GDP growth was 7.2 percent during 2017-18.
The growth could come at 6.3 percent for the January-March period, it said.
The CSO will be releasing the quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March (Q4FY19), 2019 and provisional annual estimates for 2018-19 on May 31.
India’s FY19 Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is also expected to be lower than FY18, 6.75 percent, the poll showed. It was 7.9 percent in FY18. For GVA, Q4FY19 growth is expected at 6.1 percent.
The GDP of a country indicates overall economic growth and GVA is the value of goods and services produced in an economy.
Economists polled by CNBC-TV18 said they expect the sluggish growth to persist into the first half of the current financial year.
The slowdown of the key economic growth indicators come at a time when India continues to struggle with sluggish industrial growth. The Index of industrial production (IIP), the indicator for the industrial growth, grew at its slowest pace in three years at 3.6 percent for the previous financial year. In Q4FY19, IIP grew at its slowest pace in the last five years — 0.5 percent.
Apart from the weak industrial growth, the poll also found that the agriculture sector may face a slowdown given the weak monsoon prediction, among other hurdles. However, the slowdown is likely to be eased with rabi crop production and growth in allied sectors such as forestry.
The CNBC-TV18 poll found that agriculture growth is likely to come in at 2.2 percent, as against the 6.5 percent in the previous fiscal. In the previous The poll expects the agriculture growth to be within 1.2 percent to 3 percent.
India's services sector is predicted to remain strong even now. It is likely to show a steady growth of 7 percent with the help of government spending on the sector. However, the poll predicted that tranches of the service sector — trade, hotel, transport and communication — could have seen some sluggishness in Q4FY19.
First Published: May 30, 2019 12:49 PM IST
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