homeeconomy NewsFitch delays its estimate for the first Fed rate cut this year

Fitch delays its estimate for the first Fed rate cut this year

Fitch believes the US Fed's messaging underscores the risk of moving to a more lenient monetary policy stance too early, which could compromise the sustainable reduction of inflation to target levels.

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By Shweta Mungre  Mar 14, 2024 12:00:21 PM IST (Updated)

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Fitch delays its estimate for the first Fed rate cut this year
Global ratings agency Fitch has revised its forecast for the first US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, now anticipating it to happen in July, a month later than previously expected.

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In a note released on March 13, Fitch noted that the US Fed, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BOE) all continue to signal that interest rates have likely peaked and will be cut later this year.
But they have also been pushing back against earlier market  expectations that policy easing would start imminently and proceed rapidly.
According to Fitch, their messaging underscores the risk of moving to a more lenient monetary policy stance too early, which could compromise the sustainable reduction of inflation to target levels.
"Both (Fed and ECB) want to see more evidence that recent disinflation progress is durable before embarking on the policy-easing process," Fitch said in its note.
Fitch expects three Fed rate cuts totalling 75 basis points by the end of this year.
One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point or 0.01%.
The upcoming Fed meet is scheduled on March 19-20. The next meeting will be on July 30-31,
Last week, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell also stated that continued progress on lowering inflation "is not assured" though the Fed still expects to reduce its benchmark interest rate later this year.
"If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year," Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee.
"But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured," he added.
Higher gasoline and shelter costs drove US consumer inflation higher for the second straight month in February.
In its analysis of the latest CPI print, JPMorgan Wealth Management also reiterated Fitch's stance.
"February’s stronger year-over-year (YoY) rise in the headline CPI suggests the path to the Fed’s 2% target could be longer and bumpier than expected, as the labor market and economic growth remain too strong, elevating prices. We don’t expect February’s CPI report to alter the Fed’s plans to keep interest rates higher for longer to slow inflation, but we do believe the Fed needs to see more compelling evidence that inflation is slowing in upcoming data releases before beginning to cut interest rates," JPMorgan stated in a note released on March 13.

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