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Fed will likely cut rate again this year, says Steve Brice of Standard Chartered Bank

Steve Brice of Standard Chartered Bank shared his perspective on the US Federal Reserve’s decision as well as the impending Brexit negotiations in an interview with CNBC-TV18

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By CNBC-TV18 Sept 19, 2019 9:27:02 AM IST (Published)

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The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates again on Wednesday to help sustain a record-long economic expansion but signalled a higher bar to further reductions in borrowing costs, eliciting a fast and sharp rebuke from US President Donald Trump. Describing the US economic outlook as "favourable," Fed chair Jerome Powell said the rate cut was designed "to provide insurance against ongoing risks" including weak global growth and resurgent trade tensions.

Steve Brice of Standard Chartered Bank shared his perspective on the US Federal Reserve’s decision as well as the impending Brexit negotiations in an interview with CNBC-TV18
“Jerome Powell struck the balance pretty right. If you look at the data, clearly it has been weak in recent times, manufacturing sector in particular. What I would say is he pointed to something else and said that divergence of perspectives within the Fed is healthy. I totally agree with that.
"There is a lot of uncertainty out there, so going out with one unique message with everybody on board, to us, will be a little bit worrying. So our central scenario is the economy stabilises and recovers, but if that doesn’t happen, we will react to that weaker data, it is a pretty good response,” he said.
“We still think we are probably going to get another cut. So the central tendency now is on hold but we believe that there is still probably one more cut to come this year. We still view it as more insurance cut rather than something that suggests something more sinister in terms of a recession coming in the next three-six months. Obviously some people have shifted already expecting a recession but our sense is there is still more data that is suggesting things will stabilise than dip down. Therefore, maybe one cut before the end of the year then we will see where we go from there,” he added.
The negotiations for the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union are still ongoing with the October 31 deadline fast approaching. Freeman said that there will likely be another extension to the deadline.
“The central scenario is kick the can further down the road. So if the UK applies for and gets the extension — the main question in our opinion is UK seems to want to take relatively short-term extension, I think the European Union (EU) will be worried especially given historical precedent of giving a three months or six months, I think they may want a longer-term one.
"For the EU, obviously they want this result but they don’t want the noise every three months having a deadline passing. So I won’t be surprised — with the caveat saying if we come up with the deal in the interim then we can accelerate that timeline but give yourself some time to make an agreement. Clearly, negotiations or discussions this week have yielded nothing,” he added.

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