In a recent interview with CNBC-TV18, Jahangir Aziz, Global Head of EM Economics at JPMorgan, and Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner at Geosphere Capital Management, provided their perspectives on
Budget 2024 and the recent action taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) against Paytm Payments Bank.
Aziz acknowledged the significance of Budget 2024 but cautioned against excessive excitement due to its interim nature. “It is an
Interim Budget, so let us not get too excited about it,” he said.
He speculated that, given the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, there might be a target of 4.5% fiscal deficit two years down the road. However, Aziz proposed a moderate estimate, suggesting a 5.2% fiscal deficit target for the interim budget. He emphasized the need to bear in mind the interim nature of the budget while assessing expectations.
“My guess is that they are going to target the 4.5% two years down the road. I am saying that it is going to be a 5.2% fiscal deficit target,” Aziz added.
Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner at Geosphere Capital Management, expressed the market's anticipation of minimal surprises in Budget 2024. He emphasized the importance of avoiding significant shocks, asserting that the market would prefer the government to maintain discipline on the current account deficit and fiscal deficit. Sanger emphasized that as long as there are no excessive expenditures on election-related sops, the budget is likely to be a non-event.
As Budget 2024 approaches, the financial community remains watchful for any policy shifts and potential market implications. The caution expressed by experts regarding the Budget and the scrutiny on financial institutions like Paytm Payments Bank reflect the ongoing dynamics in India's economic landscape.
For more, watch the accompanying video