Barclays raises forecast for India FY24 GDP to 6.3%

“The domestic financial system has weak global linkages, and the fall in commodity prices, especially oil prices, if sustained, will aid economic growth and improve macro stability,” he said.

India’s central bank pegged India’s growth at 6.4 percent for the next financial year, while the International Monetary Fund forecast a 6.1 percent expansion for Asia’s third largest economy.

Bajoria said goods export and import growth rates may slow, but robust momentum in services trade should partly mitigate this. He trimmed his current account deficit forecast to 1.8 percent of gross domestic product for the next fiscal year, from 2.6 percent of GDP seen in January.

The Reserve Bank of India would likely pause after a final 25 basis points rate increase in its April 6 review, Bajoria said. So far, the central bank has raised the benchmark rate by 250 basis points since May to cool spiraling inflation.