Reliance Industries is all set to report its quarterly earnings for the October to December 2023 period on January 19 with its telecom division Reliance Jio Infocomm expected to deliver a stable quarter. Analysts polled by CNBC-TV18 suggest that the telco’s revenue growth will be driven by a 10 million subscriber addition and a moderate increase in average revenue per user (ARPU).
The data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) for October 2023 shows Jio added 3.1 million subscribers during the month. Following this, the CNBC-TV18 poll of analysts expects the firm would have expanded its subscriber base by 10 million during the third quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal.
If the numbers are in line with estimates, Jio would have a total of 470 million subscribers at the end of the quarter ending December 2023 as against 459.7 million in the preceding quarter.
Meanwhile, each Jio user is expected to have spent an additional ₹1.3 on average in the quarter gone by as analysts see ARPU for the period under review at ₹183 versus ₹181.7 in the September ended quarter, analysts said. They also pointed out that the ARPU increase has been modest for the industry.
| Q3FY22 | Q4FY22 | Q1FY23 | Q2FY23 | Q3FY23 | Q4FY23 | Q1FY24 | Q2FY24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARPU | 151.6 | 167.6 | 175.7 | 177.2 | 178.2 | 178.8 | 180.5 | 181.7 |
As per the CNBC-TV18 poll, Jio will see a 2.5% sequential growth in its revenue at ₹ 25,360 crore from ₹ 24,750 crore in the previous quarter. The profit after tax (PAT) is likely to go up 1.8% at ₹ 5,150 crore compared to ₹ 5,058 crore in the second quarter.
The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA), analysts believe will come in at ₹ 13,450 crore for the December quarter, up from ₹ 12,953 crore in the last quarter. The poll projects a margin rise in EBITDA percent at 53% from 52.3% earlier.
| Q3FY22 | Q4FY22 | Q1FY23 | Q2FY23 | Q3FY23 | Q4FY23 | Q1FY24 | Q2FY24 | |
| EBITDA % | 49.20% | 50.30% | 50.13% | 51% | 52.20% | 52.20% | 52.30% | 52.34% |
Among the other factors, analysts expect the Street to track 5G rollout and adoption. As of the second quarter, Jio’s 5G data traffic accounted for more than 15% of overall data traffic. The rollout of Jio AirFibre and the hike in 4G prepaid tariff will also be key to watch, analysts said.
Also Read: Reliance Jio launches prepaid plan bundled with Swiggy One Lite subscription — check all details
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