The automobile sector is poised to maintain its upward trajectory in December 2023, with analysts anticipating sustained growth across various segments year-on-year (YoY). According to the CNBC-TV18 poll, the industry is expected to showcase positive performance.
2-wheelers set to cruise ahead
Bajaj Auto, with total sales, is projected to surge by 25%, reaching 3.51 lakh units compared to 2.81 lakh units in the corresponding period a year ago.
Hero Moto is anticipated to witness a substantial 10% increase in total sales, reaching 4.33 lakh units, a significant jump from the previous year's 3.94 lakh units.
TVS Motor is also expected to showcase robust growth, with total sales predicted to surge by 30%, reaching 3.14 lakh units.
However, the growth outlook for Eicher Motors Royal Enfield sales appears more modest, with a slight 0.4% increase in total sales, reaching 68,667 units compared to 68,400 units YoY.
4-wheeler segment: A mixed bag of performances
In the 4-wheeler segment, Maruti is expected to lead the pack with a 5.5% growth in total sales, reaching 1.47 lakh units compared to 1.39 lakh units YoY.
Conversely, Ashok Leyland is projected to face a 4% decline in total sales, falling to 17,400 units from 18,138 units YoY.
Tata Motors is expected to see a marginal 1% increase, reaching 75,233 units compared to 74,356 units YoY.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Auto, on the other hand, is expected to post a robust 19% growth in total sales, reaching 67,550 units.
However, M&M Tractor may experience a 2.5% decline in total sales, dropping to 22,667 units from 23,243 units YoY.
Insights from analysts: Jefferies, Nomura, and Antique
Jefferies analysts predict significant volume growth for Bajaj Auto and TVS in the range of 25-36% YoY. They also anticipate volume growth of 10-18% YoY for Royal Enfield, Maruti, Hero, and M&M. However, Tata Motors may see a more modest 2% YoY growth, while Ashok Leyland could face a 5% YoY decline.
Nomura's insights suggest a positive outlook for the industry, with wholesale volumes expected to rise by 12% YoY for 2-wheelers, 4% YoY for M&HCV, and 2% YoY for passenger vehicles. The margin outlook, however, hinges on discounting trends.
Antique analysts anticipate overall volume growth driven by 2 and 3-wheelers, although volumes are expected to cool down sequentially across segments. Channel checks indicate moderate YoY growth in passenger vehicle retails, while 2 and 3-wheelers are expected to register high double-digit growth on a lower base.
Commercial vehicles (CVs) may remain weak due to lower LCV demand and a higher base. Demand moderated in the second half of the month, attributed to an inauspicious period (Mal Mas).
(With inputs from Sudarshan Kumar)
First Published: Dec 29, 2023 3:15 PM IST
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