Abraham Accords engineered by former US President Donald Trump and his son in law Jared Kushner were indeed a game changer in the geo politics and regional reverberations of the Middle East or West Asia for us. Even though many countries in the region have had functional non-diplomatic mostly security arrangements with the Jewish state in camera due to the Palestinian issue, rapprochement and official recognition of Israel by UAE and Bahrain was possibly with the nod of the Saudis that was followed by normalisation with Morocco and Sudan. But Saudi Arabia's formal recognition of Israel would be the most important pivot in the regional intersection of diplomacy. Although US has been pushing for it with the younger and unconventional leadership in Saudi, it was the US which had caused the biggest hurdle to the normalisation apart from Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultra-rightist governance architecture dead against the remote idea of accommodation with a divided Palestinian house.
President Biden had miffed the Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman — also known as MBS— in more ways than one. First calling Saudi Arabia as a ‘Pariah’ state that needed to be penalised and later hurting the sensibilities and tribal pride of MBS by raking up the accountability for the Khashoggi murder. They seemed to have forgotten the Saudi heft and its Islamic leadership role and the fine art and craft of diplomacy conducted by the young crown prince that matched them by the inch as he evolved his alternatives in Russia, China and India through the “Act East Policy’.
Even the quiet Chinese sponsored rapprochement between arch rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, surprised the West who were caught unawares even as they were not paying much attention to over a yearlong efforts by Iraq and Oman to bridge the diplomatic gaps between the two regional powers. Chinese active diplomacy in the region from Tehran to Tel Aviv became an extended challenge for the ever so increasing competition and rivalry between the USA and China.
But woken up with a start the Biden administration lost no time in wooing Riyadh assuring of the full security cover and even some nuclear prowess to keep them at bay and hopefully have a normal partnership with Tel Aviv. Saudis have become adherents of the strategic autonomy while catering to their own interests and regional leadership role and bonhomie with neighbours while diffusing the criticality of the hotspots like Yemen where Houthis had directly challenged the Saudi power.
It has been stated that left to himself perhaps MBS would have tried to normalise relations with Israel provided it was delivered and addressed some Palestinian concerns. Besides being the custodian of the two Holy Mosques and ipso facto leader of the Islamic world King Salman gives due credence to resolution of the Palestinian issues. It includes the stoppage of ever-increasing settlements and standing firm on the two state solution in accordance with the Arab peace Plan. Most observers believe that two state solution is becoming increasingly distant with passing time.
On the sidelines of the G20 Summit a major announcement was made to launch the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor ( IMEC) comprising of shipping and railway and energy and digital connectivity, in which Israeli ports are an integral part . This has been conceived at the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, USA) group and carried onto IUSU (India, USA, Saudi Arabia and UAE) NSA level meetings in Saudi Arabia in May this year. Jordan, another IMEC member, and Israel already have peace treaties after the one Tel Aviv had with Cairo.
This provides a framework for aligning Saudi and Israeli positions for the smooth functioning of the corridor. Already, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was flying to Tel Aviv, Saudi Arabia for the first time granted over flight permissions which then subsequently became normal. Even a meeting of MBS and Netanyahu was reported at the Saudi Dream city Neom, which was not officially confirmed by either side. IMEC has provided a legitimate conduit for cooperation to both sides among others.
There is a tremendous interest and enthusiasm on these developments despite prevailing hiccups and concerns among other major players in the region like Iran. In a recent interview to Fox news, MBS claimed; “Every day we get closer” to reaching an agreement. “It seems it’s for the first time a real one, serious. We’re gonna see how it goes,” He said.
Again speaking at the UNGA the Saudi Foreign Minister raised the issue of just and comprehensive resolution of the Palestinian issue. MBS also caveated that ‘“For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part,”adding that he wants to see Israel as a “player in the Middle East.”
PM Netanyahu has made it his priority and even spoke of it at his recent UNGA address, disallowing any veto to Palestinians on normalisation with Arabs, stated; “There’s no question the Abraham Accords heralded the dawn of a new age of peace. But I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough, an historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia will truly create a new Middle East.”
However, if we were to believe Thomas Friedman, that during his meeting with Biden in New York the elder leader conveyed his displeasure in private on various issues including unpalatable judicial reforms, increased violence against Palestinians as well as expanding settlements while telling him about some of the conditions that MBS would want fulfilled before jumping the gun. As the winds of rapprochement in the region are blowing faster than at any time in recent history the intra regional dynamic still has the capacity to derail the well calculated efforts and designs through polarisation once again. But from India’s point of view and for the global good it is important that region remains stable and secure and the problems below threshold as the efforts to overcome them continue slowly but surely.
—The author, Amb. Anil Trigunayat, is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here (Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)
