Taiwan’s annexation by China could trigger broader security crisis, says Brahma Chellaney

In the past 24 hours alone, the presence of 19 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels around Taiwan has sparked heightened concerns about regional stability. Of these, 12 aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line, reflecting a pattern that has become increasingly regular in recent times.

Throughout the month of February, Taiwan recorded a staggering 253 instances of Chinese military aircraft and 150 naval vessels operating in proximity, a trend that underscores the rising tensions in the region.

According to Brahma Chellaney, a strategic affairs expert, this uptick in activity has been notably observed since US President Joe Biden took office, reflecting a deliberate effort by China to exert coercive pressure on Taiwan.

Chellaney emphasised that the implications of these developments extend beyond Taiwan's immediate security concerns. The annexation of Taiwan, according to Chellaney, would not only upset the balance of power in Asia but also have far-reaching consequences for the global geopolitical order, potentially leading to the collapse of the existing US-led world order.

The strategic affairs expert further underscored the potential security threat to India if Taiwan were to fall under Chinese control. Chellaney argues that Taiwan's annexation could embolden China to target India's sprawling state of Arunachal Pradesh in the name of "reunification." The repercussions, in this scenario, would extend beyond Asia, impacting the broader security landscape.

Amidst these escalating tensions, a high-ranking US official has issued a warning regarding China's ability to use military exercises as a cover for a potential invasion of Taiwan.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stresses the importance of making it unequivocally clear that any attempt to invade Taiwan would be unsuccessful. To this end, there has been an enhancement of defence cooperation between the US, Japan, South Korea, AUKUS members, and the Philippines.

Chellaney attributes China's current boldness to a perceived distraction on the part of the Biden administration, preoccupied with conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. “What is emboldening Xi Jinping is the fact that Joe Biden is preoccupied with wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. In the Middle East, the US is involved in waging not just a proxy shadow war with Iran but also battles with militias in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The US is so fully absorbed now in two wars, and its attention is deflected from the serious situation in the Indo-Pacific, and that creates an opening for China," Chellaney stated.

"To make matters worse, the Biden administration hasn’t shown urgency in fortifying Taiwan's defences, largely because America’s own arsenal—its critical ammunition and its air defence systems—is so depleted now because the US has been supplying these weapons and ammunition to Ukraine that it is not able to fill the orders that Taiwan placed as far back as 2017. So this creates an opening for China, which is why we are seeing Xi Jinping willing to take risks,” he added.