BPCL Q1 earnings: Analysts expect growth in revenue but margins, profit likely to fall

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) is set to report its Q1FY20 earnings and the street is not expecting a good set of numbers. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has surprised on the positive side. However that was not the case with Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL). It will be very interesting to see how the numbers pan out for BPCL.

In terms of numbers, analysts are expecting the numbers to fall on a sequential basis. While there will be revenue growth, but it will not show in the margins.

Margins are expected to come in at 2.8 percent versus 6.5 percent earlier. The profits also are expected to decline by 43 percent.

In the refining segment, reported margins are expected to be flat on a sequential basis at USD 3 per barrel. However, the core gross refining margins (GRMs) are expected to show some growth, 46 percent on a sequential basis.

The inventory losses should range between USD 0.5 per barrel and USD 0.8 per barrel.

Refining throughputs are expected to improve both on a year on year (YoY) and on a sequential basis.

Revenue seen (GU)10.5 percent at Rs 76,468 crore vs Rs 73,991 crore

EBITDA seen (RD)42 percent at Rs 2,161 crore vs Rs 4,804 crore

OPTG profit margin seen (RD) at 2.8 percent vs 6.5 percent

Profit After tax seen (RD)43 percent at Rs 707 crore vs Rs 1,233 crore

Reported gross refining margins seen at $3/bbl

Core gross refining margins seen at $3.80/bbl

Inventory loss seen between $0.50/bbl to $0.80/bbl

Refining throughput at 8.7 mmt vs 8.2 mmt QoQ; Vs 7.7 mmt YoY

Gross marketing margins seen at Rs 4.20/lt

Domestic marketing volumes seen flat at 11.3-11.4 mmt

Inventory loss expected at Rs 570 crore