After over a year of near washout, India’s retail industry is seeing green shoots of recovery as the country unlocks. Retail sales in July 2021 were at 72 percent of the pre-pandemic levels of July 2019, and this improved sequentially as well, up from 50 percent in June.
States across the country have eased restrictions to a great extent, especially in the form of extended store timings. This is reflected in the sales of apparel recover to 63 percent and consumer durables to 72 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
South India is leading the recovery in retail sales improving to nearly 82 percent over July 2019 with states such as Telangana fully lifting lockdown.
However, it’s not all good news in the west, with the government of Maharashtra still imposing some curbs. Though the Maharashtra government recently allowed the opening of malls, they were shut completely throughout July and non-essential stores too were allowed to be open only for limited hours, thus hampering sales in this region.
While
malls have now been allowed to open until 10 pm, it is unlikely that malls in Mumbai will be able to open for business until September at least. This is because the easing of curbs came with a rider than every employee in the mall and customers entering the malls should be fully vaccinated against COVID, having a gap of 14 days since the second dose.
This came as a rude shock to the industry that was desperately awaiting reopening. In fact, malls in Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra were forced to shut down just two days after they opened because they didn’t have enough fully vaccinated staff to be able to operate.
Over 80 percent of the workforce in malls falls in the age group of 18-44 years. While vaccination for this group started in May, it kept getting suspended due to a shortage of COVID vaccines. To make the matters worse, the interval between two doses of Covishield (which was the vaccine being administered to this age group) was increased to 84 days.
As a result, malls only began vaccinating staff in June and so most of the employees will not be eligible for a second dose until the end of August. Malls are now urging the state government to reconsider the applicability of the vaccination rules for malls.
Some malls in Thane, Pune, etc, however, have opened up with fully vaccinated staff.
The FMCG sector
On the FMCG front,
Dabur conducted its AGM on Thursday and vice-chairman Mohit Burman said while the challenges of COVID are far from over, the company is much better prepared to handle challenges emerging from further COVID waves.
The company, which has a good run through the pandemic thanks to increased demand for natural and ayurvedic products saw its India FMCG business leading growth with a 15 percent surge, and volume growth of 12.5 percent in FY21. In fact, the company added Rs 500 crore turnover to its Health Supplements portfolio, which includes iconic brands like Dabur Honey and Dabur Chyawanprash.
And like with other FMCG majors, rural growth too, remained healthy. Dabur’s CEO Mohit Malhotra told shareholders in the AGM that it was rural, along with e-commerce that was star performers for the company.
Rural grew over 25 percent in Q1FY22 despite the second wave while e-commerce saw 2.7x growth in sales in FY21 over last year. In Q1FY22, e-commerce contributed 8 percent to Dabur’s sales in Q1 FY22.
Dabur’s Burman also exuded confidence in the company’s future, saying Dabur is well-positioned to meet the challenges ahead and generate sustainable long-term growth. And Dabur’s mainstay, which is Ayurveda and natural products now becoming a trend that’s here to stay, augurs well for the company going ahead.
