The upcoming
Assembly elections in five states will conclude just five months before the General Elections 2024. Together these states have 83 Lok Sabha seats out of which 65 seats are in the Hindi heartland states - Rajasthan (25), Madhya Pradesh (29), and Chhattisgarh (11).
After the win in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the
Congress is confident of winning all three states. The
Bharatiya Janata Party, on the other hand, is putting all its might in these polls as it lost all three states in the 2018 Assembly polls.
But everything boils down to the Lok Sabha polls. Do these polls influence General Elections? Let's have a look:
Local issues
The state polls are fought on local issues and on local faces. While the General Elections are fought on national issues and prime ministerial face. According to reports, Prime Minister
Narendra Modi still has an edge over others. Even if BJP loses a state, it is still strong at the national level.
According to the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey conducted in August, 52% of the respondents were in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a third term. The survey revealed that 63% of the respondents are satisfied with Modi’s performance as the prime minister.
Modi factor
One of the agendas in these polls is Modi as the BJP is relying heavily on his charisma, popularity, and image. The BJP has not declared a chief ministerial candidate for any state and won't do so till the results are announced. Modi is the face of BJP in all states.
MPs test
These elections will also help in streamlining ticket distribution. Many BJP MPs have been given tickets for the state polls. These MPs need to showcase their ground strength, popularity, and influence not just in the seat from where they are contesting but in the Lok Sabha seat, which houses many assembly constituencies, that they represent.
Past elections
Going by the past election results, it cannot be assumed that the party that wins these polls will perform better in Lok Sabha elections. In 2018 state polls, Congress won all three states but failed to make a mark in 2019 General Elections. The Congress failed to open its account in
Rajasthan, one seat in
Madhya Pradesh, and two seats in
Chhattisgarh.
The same happened in the 2003 and 1998 state polls either when the party the state polls, failed in the General Elections.
Strategising
These polls will also let parties fine-tune their strategies, work on various permutation combinations, on their agendas to woo as many voters. Clearly, both BJP and Congress are targetting women voters this time as they have outnumbered men in many constituencies when it comes to exercising their franchises.
Experts believe there can be an influence on the state polls depending on the narrative for the General Elections. With Opposition parties coming together under
INDIA alliance for Lok Sabha polls, there might be a consolidation of the vote on a few seats but may be otherwise in other constituencies. Also, these three states has witnessed a direct fight between the BJP and Congress.
(Edited by : Amrita Das)
First Published: Oct 13, 2023 10:17 AM IST
