Punjab elections: SWOT analysis of Congress, AAP, BJP-PLC-SAD (Sanyukt), SAD-BSP alliances

The Punjab Assembly election this year has seen several strong contenders, including the incumbent Congress and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance with former Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa-led SAD (Sanyukt) besides Shiromani Akali Dal joining hands with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ensured a multi-cornered contest in the border state.

Strength: Being the ruling party, Congress has had the benefit of actually reaching out to the voters with the works they undertook during the five years. Also party's chief ministerial face Charanjit Singh Channi, the first Dalit chief minister of Punjab, received a good response during the campaigning.

Weaknesses: Infighting rocked the party's state unit to the core in the year that went by. Senior leader and one of the claimants to the CM post, Navjot Singh Sidhu, escalated attacks on the then Punjab CM, Captain Amarinder Singh, and lobbied against him. Meanwhile, Singh, on several occasions, took a stand that didn't align with the views of the party's central leadership. Ultimately, internal bickering forced Captain Amarinder to quit the top post. Subsequently, the Congress brass handpicked Charanjit Singh Channi as the first Dalit CM of Punjab but soon after, differences started emerging between state party president Navjot Singh Sidhu and Channi on several issues. In addition, the party is also battling anti-incumbency.

Opportunities: If Congress secures a second term in Punjab, it would not just raise the stature of party in the state but nationally as well. It will shatter notions on party's weak central leadership and send out a message Congress can deliver on the promise of good governance.

Threats: AAP gained significant traction in the run-up to polls and has become Congress's prime challenger. Besides, in case of a hung assembly verdict, the BJP-backed alliance may support SAD-BSP or AAP to prevent Congress from forming the government.

Strengths: The party led a high-octane election campaign and received widespread support in several constituencies. Party's chief ministerial face Bhagwant Mann and its slogan "Ik Mauka AAP Nu" (a chance to AAP) are also striking a chord with state residents, especially those in the Malwa region (comprising 69 of the total 117 seats). Poll observers say the party is expected to fare well in several assembly segments of the other two regions — Majha (25) and Doaba (23) — as well.

Weaknesses: A section of voters discount the party for not having the experience of ruling a state. Several of its leaders are first-timers who have been put up against political heavyweights.

Opportunities: Despite being in active politics for about a decade now, AAP is still seen as a party limited to Delhi. A win in Punjab will be the first step for the party to move in the direction of securing a national footprint.

Threats: Back in 2017, AAP leaders had been claiming to win 80 out of the 117 seats. However, its poll prospects suffered a major setback after Kejriwal visited the residence of a known Khalistani terrorist. This time too, Congress and BJP are cornering AAP for being "soft towards Sikh radicals and Khalistani supporters". In their election rallies, star BJP campaigners, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, called out Kejriwal for being "hand-in-glove with radicals". Similarly, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also asked Kejriwal to clarify his stand on Khalistanis. In addition, former AAP leader, Kumar Vishwas, recently accused Kejriwal of "having plotted to become the Prime Minister of an independent country of Khalistan in the previous 2017 elections".

Strengths: The party, led by Sukhbir Singh Badal and family, branded itself as the "Punjab’s own party" throughout the election campaign. The party, which governed the state for 10 years till 2017, continues to have a strong Sikh voter base. Meanwhile, Mayawati-led BSP hopes to clinch a few constituencies that have a relatively higher Dalit population (its traditional voter-base), and strengthen Akali Dal's position on the remaining seats.

Weaknesses: The party is facing resentment from a significant number of voters, primarily over two issues — Akali Dal's perceived anti-Sikh positioning in the 2015 sacrilege cases when pages of the Guru Granth Sahib were found desecrated and the anti-farm protests statements issued by a few of its leaders.

Opportunities: If SAD wins, a new life will be infused into the Punjab-centric party. A win for a regional party like SAD against Congress would cement its image as a formidable force. As for BSP, a party facing an existential crisis, a poll win would be short of resuscitation.

Threats: AAP is fast eating into SAD's vote share. Meanwhile, Congress is also eying the party's traditional Sikh votes. Without BJP, the party has lost some of its star power as well.

Strengths: The BJP stunned its rivals with its unprecedented outreach to deras, religious sects and Sikh leaders in the run-up to the polls. Also, a battery of senior BJP leaders, including PM Modi, led an aggressive poll blitzkrieg. Besides, Captain's popularity may also help the coalition sweep some seats.

Weaknesses: The BJP has lost the support of farmers in the state due to the three farm laws. Also, it is seen as the party of Hindi-speaking Hindus. The party doesn't have a connection with the Sikh voters.

Opportunities: At this point, hardly any poll expert is putting its money on this alliance. However, a win in Punjab would be the ultimate answer to all criticism of the three farm laws. Besides, a majority of the credit of this win would go to the BJP, unlike previous times when the party was seen as a second fiddle to Akali Dal even when the coalition won. Not to forget, a win would most likely mean Captain Singh securing another chief ministerial term although with an overwhelmingly BJP cabinet.

Threats: All parties demonised the already unpopular farm laws to further kick down the BJP. The anti-incumbency votes which the BJP-SAD-PLC aims to secure may well go to AAP or Akali Dal-BSP.

Strength: While the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha has the backing of 19 farmer unions, Sanyukt Sangharsh Party is headed by Gurnam Singh Chaduni, a farm union leader. The two parties also enjoy the support of farmer leader Balbir Singh Rajewal. All these groups took an active part in the anti-farm laws protest.

Weaknesses: The coalition lacks a strong organisational structure and has not been able to pitch itself as a viable option to the urban population. Also, the Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ugrahan) has expressed its disappointment with farmer organisations entering politics.

Opportunities: As the party has no such political history, any gains would bring it to the notice of people and give it a boost to expand its foothold in the state. Even if the party emerges as a smaller partner in the ruling coalition in case of a hung assembly verdict, it will still be seen as a step up.

Threats: With the exception of a few, almost all other party candidates were new with not much to connect with the non-farming population. The party has not been able to use its 'first-timer' tag to position itself as an alternative to other parties.