January 28, 2024 will be written in brief history of the nascent I.N.D.I. A platform as the day when its prime mover and architect, Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United) simply tore the script he wrote for the opposition parties to collectively take the Bharatiya Janata Party on.
Just as the grand plan to engage Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government in a direct one-on-one contest was coming down to brass tacks, the JD (U) president walked away to pitch his tent inside the BJP camp.
Over the next few weeks, students of politics will debate and discuss the outcome and make an attempt to search for the reasons why this project of 28 parties lost steam and hold a party or a leader, responsible for the escape hatch to be lifted. At present, inclination is to point towards the Congress as the villain who disrupted the play.
The irony is that in the run-up to the curtains of the existing arrangement in Bihar, two leaders heading regional parties, Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress and Akhilesh Yadav of Samajwadi Party made noises which portrayed the Indian National Congress in a poor light.
Even though there was little public claim to be the leader of I.N.D.I.A platform, by virtue of being the largest party in the alternate coalition, the Congress was perceived to helm the formation of disparate political outfits.
The irony was that the attempt to carve out this collection of political parties opposed to the BJP was initiated by Nitish Kumar, a socialist leader with decades of administrative experience. Whatever be the compulsion of Nitish Kumar to jettison the plan he was working on to directly engage the BJP in a collective fashion, as things stand the BJP is full steam ahead on several counts.
One, the party is consolidating its pole position by systematically knocking off any potential challenger; it enticed the chief architect of a challenger by co-opting him; built a narrative that adds to the atmosphere of trust and faith in the BJP; subconsciously attempt to ingrain how it is difficult to work with the Congress, and, finally play on the stability of the governing coalition versus inherent instability on the offer from the opposition.
Ability of parties opposed to the BJP competing for the same political space in states with dominant presence could never be wished away. It was this aspect alone that those observing the contours of this emerging formation were sceptical about. How much will parties which are in governments willing to concede?
For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party, basking in its recent elevation as a national party, would loathe to hand over a lion’s share of 21 seats at stake in the states of Punjab (13), Delhi (7) and Union Territory of Chandigarh. Equally, the state units of Congress in these places were unwilling to share space with AAP, with which it was in direct competition.
In Uttar Pradesh, which sends the largest contingent of 80 members to the Lok Sabha, the Congress is in a pitiable position. Barring its 20-odd seat fluke victory in 2009, the party is in no position to stake its claim beyond what the Samajwadi Party offers. From a mere two seats to a more respectable offer of 11 seats was the best the regional party was willing to accommodate.
Now after developments in Bihar, the Congress will be more dependent on both the Rashtriya Janata Dal and SP in UP, in these two major Hindi-speaking states. The situation becomes precarious when viewed from the prism of reverses in recent assembly elections of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In the entire North India which elects nearly 45% of Lok Sabha or 239 of the 543 seats, the Congress is on a shaky ground. Recent elections show that barring Telangana and Karnataka, the Congress is less than equal in combating the BJP in direct electoral duel.
The BJP will enter the general elections from a position of immense strength. It has a wonderful election machine that remains in top order; enjoys solid and silent Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh workers to back up the BJP’s own workforce; a massive war chest; ability to control and set the political narrative projecting the performance of its decade-old government; and a Prime Minister whose popularity remains way above any possible contenders. The BJP is ready with its slogan to underscore ‘Modi’s Guarantee” to fulfil promises in implementing welfare measures and marching on the path towards a developed India by 2047.
On the other hand, while the situation could look like it is BJP all the way, a contrast emerges in states where regional parties hold the turf or challenge the national party. In the South, barring Karnataka, the BJP has been unable to have a firmer foot in the door and in the East, Trinamool Congress showed how it can drive back the BJP and Maharashtra remains a state where the NCP and breakaway faction of Shiv Sena remain steady combatants.
The Congress leaders have put up a brave front after the Bihar episode. The party has little choice but to soldier on. It could attempt to salvage what is left of the I.N.D.I . Alliance or work on the advice of former CPI (M ) general secretary to the Congress president Sonia Gandhi in 2004. When she reached out for an electoral understanding, the veteran Marxist politely declined citing serious differences on economic policies with the Congress. Yet, before the meeting ended he suggested helpfully “Let’s us maximise seats in States we are strong and we will see later”. The results led to the formation of United Progressive Alliance with the Left parties extending support from the outside. Politics, as the adage goes, is the art of the possible.
—The author, K V Prasad, is an author and political analyst. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here (Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)
First Published: Feb 5, 2024 12:40 PM IST
