The great Indian electoral race began on Saturday. The declaration of an elaborate seven phase schedule, starting from April 19, to elect the next Government through the Lok Sabha polls by the Election Commission signalled the start.
Between April and June this year, the nearly 97 crore electorate will speak through the ballot punching buttons of the electronic voting machine to decide the electoral fate of thousands of contestants either as independents or as representatives of the 100-odd political parties.
As things stand now, the Bharatiya Janata Party and its National Democratic Alliance consisting of 35-odd parties appears in position of dominance and all set to consolidate its pole position in the country. In contrast, the opposition camp — the I.N.D.I Alliance — led by the Indian National Congress, does not present a picture of confidence prepared to challenge the party in government.
For the past decade, polls after polls, the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have demonstrated the efficacy of a great strategy, which through its envious political machinery; an enormous war chest; and, backed by a dedicated stream of workers have delivered results in favour of the party.
The latest evidence came to fore in the assembly elections of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and a mega pre-poll survey disclosed that the BJP is cruising at a steady pace towards its target of 400-seats for the grand alliance.
The News18 opinion poll results show that the BJP is firmly positioned to bag maximum seats in the Hindi heartland states of Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. The estimate is that the governing party with its allies can bag as many as 411 of the 543 seats in the 18th Lok Sabha.
In comparison, the results do paint a bleak scenario for the I.N.D.I Alliance suggesting the platform may struggle and barely manage to cross the 100-seat mark. To be precise, the figure suggests 105 for the alliance with the Congress, a seat less than 50. In terms of vote share, the BJP-led ally is expected to log 48% of votes and the Congress-led camp some 16 percentage points behind.
This data underscore the belief that the well-entrenched BJP under PM Modi is positioned to return to office for the third time, which in turn will bring the PM at par with the country’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru who won national elections three-times in a row.
One has to wait till June 4 when the voting machines (EVMs) will begin to spout the results and verdict as to which party or a combination have been trusted by the people to govern the country for the next five years. Psephology in the Indian context has improved over the last three decades and has come to be relied upon by the people as a reasonable indicator to sense which way the electoral winds are blowing. At times, some surveys have missed the wood for the trees which led to people to treat the exercise with reasonable scepticism and question its methodology.
Yet, these surveys do help the electorate to also understand which party(ies) in the electoral fray have the best chance to romp home as the victor, and the potential to assist the undecided voter take a call.
Parties and preparedness
There is no gainsaying in iterating the BJP-led alliance is far ahead in terms of preparation and sewed up alliance in majority of the states, with one or two more in the pipeline. The BJP has finalised seat sharing arrangements in several states including in the south like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and in two northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. This gives the alliance a head start in addition to the BJP which is in driver’s seat in several states where it has governments.
Going in with the unmistakable brand of PM Modi and his guarantee of delivery on electoral promises, the BJP campaign was launched weeks ago. Even before the blowing of the poll bugle, the party leadership and its cadres are already in campaign mode. The slew of projects unveiled by PM Modi during the past few weeks and sharp attacks on governments where parties opposed to the BJP
In comparison, the Congress-led Indian National Inclusive Developmental Alliance (I.N.D.I. Alliance) with nearly 40 parties, big and small, is still a work in progress with West Bengal being a case in point. There are some states where the alliance or its partners are not together.
For instance, this stark reality stands out in Punjab where the Congress party and the Aam Aadmi Party have decided to go it alone with candidates against one another when barely 250 kilometres away in Delhi these parties have worked out an understanding as in some other states. Similarly, in Kerala, the Congress and the Left parties are in the opposing corners when these parties promise to work with each other elsewhere.
A saving grace for the I.N.D.I. Alliance is Tamil Nadu where the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam as the lead partner made allocations clear or in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana where the Congress is on firmer ground. The other advantage is that barring Karnataka, the BJP electoral presence is less of a threat. The perception today is that the coming Lok Sabha elections does not appear to be a case of a contest that is even.
—The author, K V Prasad, is an author and political analyst. The views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here (Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)
First Published: Mar 17, 2024 9:55 AM IST
