The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to win 77 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024 with a 57% vote share, according to a News18 Opinion Poll.
The main challengers, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A block is expected to bag just two seats, albeit with a 26% vote share, while the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could win just a single seat with a 9% vote share.
Within Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is expected to sweep Ruhelkhand's 10 seats, Bundelkhand's four, Doab's 14 and western UP's nine Lok Sabha seats. The ruling party is set to bag 29 of the 30 Lok Sabha seats in Poorvanchal and 11 of the 13 in the Avadh region. The SP-Congress-led INDIA bloc is expected to bag one seat each from the Avadh and Poorvanchal regions. The BSP is projected to win one seat in the Avadh region.
Uttar Pradesh sends 80 Lok Sabha members, which is crucial to any party's electoral fortunes.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP clinched 62 seats and its ally, Apna Dal (Sonelal), bagged two. The Indian National Congress managed to win just one seat, while the SP and BSP alliance secured 15 seats, challenging the BJP's dominance in some pockets. SP bagged five seats and BSP 10.
Uttar Pradesh: Other key findings of the poll
As many as 79% of survey respondents in Uttar Pradesh stated that their economic condition is better off than it was five years ago. Only 4% of the respondents to the opinion poll said that their economic condition is worse than it was five years ago. Sixteen percent of the respondents said the economic conditions remain the same as they were five years ago.
Not just that, 81% of the survey respondents believe that their economic conditions will improve in the next year. As many as 90% of respondents said they were satisfied with the performance of the central government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the past five years.
On a separate question of whether they will vote for the BJP because of Narendra Modi regardless of who the party puts up as a candidate in their Lok Sabha constituency, as many as 91% of respondents from UP said yes.
As many as 58% of the respondents in the state also said they are satisfied with the performance of the sitting MP of their Lok Sabha constituency over the last five years.
Among the top issues that concern a voter decision, jobs topped with 61%, while inflation and the law and order situation impacted 51% and 54%, respectively.
An extensive survey covering 518 Lok Sabha constituencies across 21 major states, the News18 opinion poll features a massive sample size of over 1,18,616 respondents, representing 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies and making it one of the largest surveys in the country. The News18 Mega Opinion Poll was conducted by News18 Poll Hub.
(Edited by : Amrita)
First Published: Mar 13, 2024 8:58 PM IST
