Observers of Indian politics are watching with interest the fissures developing in the newly-minted INDI Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) as the Assembly elections to five states are scheduled during this month.
While polling for the elections to 679-seats across the states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana will begin on November 7 and conclude by November 30, the focus is on the approach of these allies, who joined the I.N.D.I.A platform, mainly in the 400-odd Assembly seats in three Hindi-speaking states.
For the practitioners and students of politics, the spotlight on the states of Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, which account for 65 Lok Sabha seats is clear. These states are considered bell-weather states — meaning when denizens here speak through ballot, they convey a strong message to political parties in the country vying for their attention.
This in no way reduces the impact of the results from the other two states, which account for 159 Assembly seats and 18 representatives in the Lok Sabha. Yet, the larger states do carry their own weight in electoral calculations and the outcome allows political parties to decode the results for the current polls to be declared on December 3.
The crucial difference is that the BJP as a party is not counted among parties that can directly tilt the electoral scales either in Mizoram or Telangana.
Why this excitement
Excitement about these elections can be explained. These are occurring barely six months short of the next big one — the general elections when one of the largest electorates in the world will decide to hand over the reins of governance to a party or a combination at the next Lok Sabha polls — in the summer of 2024.
In this backdrop, the quibbling between the allies grew shriller during the past few weeks. First it was the constant verbal tug-of-war between the Samajwadi Party leadership in Uttar Pradesh and the latest comment on ambiguity by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
On his part, Kumar retains his hands on the till. It was his effort that brought about a modicum of understanding among disparate political parties in the country working on a basic strong bond — anti-Bharatiya Janata Party.
After three meetings and tilling the ground in preparation for a working electoral understanding, the Bihar Chief Minister admitted in a grudging fashion that the entire exercise of a grand INDI Alliance is on the hold since the Congress party is too immersed in contesting the Assembly poll.
It is a statement of fact and the Congress, with its pan-India presence cannot be faulted. The party cannot afford to take its sight off the elections in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, where some of its I.N.D.I.A partners are interested in. The argument is why is not the Congress unwilling to concede space to partners to send a message of being together.
On the part of the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (United), both were negotiating with the Congress to part with a few seats. Quite like the SP and JD (U), another I.N.D.I.A ally — the Aam Aadmi Party, too staked its claim. There was no progress and ultimately, these allies in the I.N.D.I.A bloc decided to test political waters separately. Yet, every hard nosed political leadership knows, one can only bargain from a position of strength.
A couple of days before Nitish Kumar made a statement on Congress' leadership. A SP leader considered close to party chief, Akhilesh Singh suggested the Congress leadership should not expect seat-sharing during the Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh.
On an ideological platform, there is no doubt that UP is a battlefield where the SP is the most powerful challenger to the BJP and the party will loathe to concede any space to a party that can slice away its own voter-base. The 2017 Assembly elections when both the SP-Congress joined hands made no difference as the BJP won the right to govern the state. Each party is well within its rights to guard its turf.
Interestingly, the SP leaders attempted to read the tea leaves. The argument advanced was that just in case the Congress does well in the Assembly elections, the party cannot dictate seat-adjustments/sharing arrangements in the 2024 general elections. It can be interpreted as a threat or realistic assessment of signals from the ground.
For the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress and its central leadership will require the structures of governance in states to be able to sit among other parties in alliance from a position of strength. Electoral politics eventually is gauged from its ability to harvest seats in the battle of the ballots, which in turn bestows the right to form a government and formulate policies and programmes.
A final question is, would the Congress demonstrate it can and has the strong will to accommodate competing interests of the I.N.D.I.Alliance? After all of them promised to collectively take on the BJP with a declared mission to replace the party to govern at the Centre is clear.
The current scenario appears hazy and its continuation will benefit the BJP. However, as the saying goes, politics is the art of the possible, and as a former British PM stated, a week is a long time in politics. Tomorrow is another day.
— The author, K V Prasad, is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. Views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here (Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)
