RBI unlikely to pause lending rate hike as core inflation remains stagnant, says JPMorgan's Jahangir Aziz

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the policy decisions on April 6. Most economists (90 percent) that CNBC-TV18 spoke for a survey said they expect the central bank to continue its fight against inflation and follow the US Federal Reserve globally by hiking the lending rate by 25 basis points.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Markets Economics Research and Commodities at JPMorgan said the RBI should not pause on interest rate hikes due to stagnant core inflation rate.

Aziz pointed out that core inflation, the long-term trend of price changes in the economy excluding volatile items such as food and fuel prices, has remained stagnant at six percent.

This indicates that the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy have not subsided, and therefore, there is a need for continued vigilance on the part of the central bank, he said. Aziz also noted, “whatever relief we thought we would get from crude oil prices - that has gone out of the window.”

The RBI has already implemented a series of rate hikes since the beginning of the year to control inflation, which has been a concern for policymakers globally with India being no exception. The rising prices can hurt the purchasing power of consumers and impact economic growth.

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