Stock prices and indexes the world over have been performing well, with steady gains seen since the trough of the COVID-19 pandemic. India’s biggest stock indices, Nifty50 and Sensex, are already up by 51.43 percent and 49.10 percent over the past year. India may be on its way to see a historic bull rally.
India’s big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala recently reiterated his belief in the bull run. “I am
as bullish as I ever was,” said Jhunjhunwala.
“People are getting alarmed. At the height of COVID-19, in March 2020, the index (Nifty50) had gone from 11,500 to 7,500. Now the index is around 17,700; we got a raise from 7,500, and from here to maybe 40,000-50,000, 100,000 -- we have got to pause, nothing is lenient in life. I feel it’s healthy and also because of the pace of the rise, there might have been too much excitement,” he explained in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
Jhunjhunwala is not the only market bigwig who has seen the signs of a bull market cycle.
Sunil Subramaniam, MD & CEO, Sundaram Mutual, recently said, “I see a very sharp V-shaped uptick in earnings and a more sustainable maybe a five- to seven-year bull run in the economy for these sectors (industrials, building materials, capital goods suppliers).”
Subramaniam added that even auto stocks look food for 2022, despite the current stress on the segment and recent poor performance.
Others agree on being in the middle of the bull cycle but are less optimistic about its ongoing length.
Santosh Joseph, Founder and Managing Partner at Germinate Investor Services LLP, said while India is in a multi-year bull cycle the returns going forward will not be replicating those seen in the last 12-18 months.
“Yes, we are in a multi-year bull run, for sure! We have seen many emerging economies in the past go through multi-year bull rallies with minor breaks. India seems to be on that trajectory,” Joshi told Moneycontrol.
“We will grow for many more years, but can’t be like the last 15-18 months,” he added.
Maneesh Dangi, macro investor and advisor, said in an interview to The Economic Times: “My bet is in India the bull market would be longish and the mid-cycle phase would persist for one-two years at least, if not more. There will be lowish but reasonable returns in Nifty.”
“We should prepare ourselves for the end of the bull market as well but at this stage I am not calling it out,” he added.
Navin Agarwal, MD & CEO at Motilal Oswal AMC, also acknowledged India’s strong growth, stating that he believed that India was at the start of a bull cycle. “With an expectation that the earnings would grow at double digits and capital formation cycle just starting we may be in the initial phase of a new bull run,” said Agarwal.
Market veteran Shankar Sharma also said the bull run would continue for at least the next 12 months. “We have gone up phenomenally in a very short span of time. The markets are taking a breather and quite rightly so. But one should not think that it is the end of a bull market or anything of that sort. That day will come but definitely not in the next 12 months at least,” Sharma told ET.
(Edited by : Shoma Bhattacharjee)
