Trade Setup for March 28: 22,200 a barrier for the Nifty as March series, FY24 draw to a close

This three-day truncated week comes to an end on Thursday. So far, it has been one up day and one down day for the Nifty. The index recovered all that it lost on Tuesday and a little more courtesy of Reliance Industries, which contributed to two-thirds of the Nifty's advance in mid-week trading. That happened courtesy of a positive brokerage note from Goldman Sachs. You can read more on that here.

Reliance did all that it could to take the Nifty higher and was ably supported by HDFC Bank as well. Yet, it could not take the index past that much dreaded resistance level of 22,200. Although the Nifty did cross last Friday's high of 22,180, making a new high of 22,193 on Wednesday, but it could not sustain at those levels, eventually ending 70 points off the session's high.

Thursday will be the monthly F&O expiry of the Nifty contracts. So far, the Nifty is up only 100 points this series. Thursday will also be the end of the January-March quarter, which will also mark the end of financial year 2024.

For the quarter, the Nifty is up 1.8%, having given up substantial gains from its recent peak of 22,526. For financial year 2024, the Nifty has delivered returns of 27.4%.

Levels remain the same to track even for Thursday's session. On the downside, the 50-Day Moving Average of 21,950 and then the recent swing low of 21,710 remain the key levels to watch, while on the upside, the 20-DMA of around 22,160 and then Wednesday's high of 22,193 will be the levels to keep an eye out for.

Both foreign and domestic investors were net buyers in the cash market on Wednesday. The numbers though will be skewed due to the block deals that took place in stocks like CDSL and Aster DM Healthcare.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that the current chart patterns of the Nifty remain positive but rangebound. The upper end of the range is at 22,200 above which a breakout is essential for the index to regain momentum towards newer highs. Any weakness from here can take the Nifty back down to 21,900, he added.

The market texture is bullish but in the near future, the 20-DMA of 22,170 will act as a key resistance for the bulls, said Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities. A break above that level can take the index towards 22,300 - 22,350 levels, but a slip below 22,080 may drag the index back down to 21,950 - 21,900 levels.

The Nifty Bank continued to oscillate in the 300-point range, finding support at the 46,600 mark on the downside but continuing to struggle for crossing the 47,000 mark on the upside. HDFC Bank led the charge on Wednesday but was offset by SBI. However, a late surge ensured the index closed with gains of 200 points.

Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank has formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. While support on the downside remains at 46,350 levels, the index continues to face hurdles between 47,000 - 47,300.

A decisive breakout above the 20-Day Moving Average of 46,950 is needed for the Nifty Bank to trigger sharp short covering moves towards levels of 48,000, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. Downside support remains between levels of 46,500 - 46,400.

Nifty 50's futures across all series added 4.1% in Open Interest on Wednesday with rollovers currently at 62%. They are trading at a premium of 43.4 points compared to 83.85 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's futures across series added 1.2% in Open Interest on Wednesday, with current rollovers at 87%. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.15 from 1.09 earlier.

SAIL is out of the F&O Ban, while Hindustan Copper and Zee Entertainment are back in the ban on F&O expiry day.

For Thursday's monthly expiry, the Nifty 50 Call strikes between 22,150 - 22,400 have seen Open Interest addition, while the 22,000 strike has seen Open Interest shedding.

On the Put side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,000 and 22,200 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday's expiry.

IDFC First Bank: Sources tell CNBC-TV18 that Cloverdell Investments is likely to sell 2.25% equity via block deals. The offer size is said to be ₹1,191.4 crore. Floor price has been fixed at ₹75 per share. This is likely to be a clean out trade as Cloverdell holds a 2.25% stake in the lender.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories: Signs exclusive distribution agreement with Sanofi Healthcare India to promote and distribute the vaccine brands of Sanofi Healthcare in India.

BHEL: Wins order from Adani Power to set up the 2x800 MW Raigarh Phase-II Thermal Power Plant at Raigarh, Chhattisgarh. The order pertains to supply of equipment and supervision of erection & commissioning for 2x800 MW power project based on supercritical technology at Raigarh Phase II, Chhattisgarh. The order is valued at nearly ₹4,000 crore.

Alkem Laboratories: USFDA issues form 483 with 10 observations for the company's Baddi unit, but none of them are data integrity observations. The Baddi unit was inspected from March 19 to March 27, 2024

Zydus Life: USFDA issues four observations for the company's Ahmedabad SEZ Onco injectable manufacturing plant. The plant was inspected between March 18 to March 27, 2024. The observations were not data integrity related.

UltraTech: Had identified opportunities for debottlenecking / efficiency improvement across various locations, resulting in additional production capacity of 2.4 MTPA. The total domestic grey cement manufacturing capacity stands at 140.8 MTPA, and along with its overseas capacity of 5.4 MTPA, the global capacity is now at 146.2 MTPA. The company has also entered into an energy supply agreement and a share subscription and shareholder agreement to acquire 26% stake in M/s O2 Renewable Energy XXII Pvt. Ltd., a company engaged in the generation and transmission of renewable energy. The acquisition, worth ₹15.68 crore is to meet the company's green energy needs, optimise energy costs and comply with regulatory requirements related to captive power consumption under electricity laws.

Chalet Hotels: Plans to raise ₹1,200 crore through the QIP. Floor price of ₹780 is a 10% discount to Wednesday's close.

Texmaco Rail: Raises ₹250 crore via QIP. Approves allocation of 1.61 crore equity shares at an issue price of ₹155 per share, which is a 4.84% discount to the floor price of ₹162.88 per share.

Karnataka Bank: Approves closure of QIP and allocates 2.64 crore equity shares at an issue price of ₹227, which is a 1.91% discount to the floor price of ₹231.43.

GMR Airports: GMR Visakhapatnam International Airport Ltd., a step-down subsidiary of the company has received ₹394.88 crore from NIIF as the first tranche of the total investment of ₹675 crore for the upcoming greenfield airport at Bhogapuram.

Sudarshan Chemicals: Launches three new products for complex inorganic coloured pigments for plastics, complex inorganic coloured pigments for coatings and for azo pigments for water base decorative coatings. The products launched will cater to both domestic and international markets.

ESAB India: Declared second interim dividend of ₹24 per share resulting in an outflow of ₹36.94 crore. Record date for the said dividend has been fixed at April 5, 2024.

Cyient: Signs agreement with Deutsche Aircraft to design rear fuselage section of the D328eco Aircraft.

REC: Board approves borrowing program worth ₹1.6 lakh crore for financial year 2025.

Bank of India: Board approves issue of long term infra bonds worth ₹10,000 crore during financial year 2025.

NHPC: To raise up to ₹6,100 crore via debt during financial year 2025.

Tata Elxsi: Partners with Drager to advance critical care innovation in India. Under this partnership, Drager will establish its offshore development centre at Tata Elxsi's Pune facility.

JSW Energy: To consider fund raising via private offerings or QIPs or other methods on April 2.

Emami: Signs share purchase agreement to acquire the remaining 4.64% stake in Brillare Science. It currently holds 4.64% stake in the company.