All listed life insurance companies have delivered returns of 30-40 percent year-to-date. The industry fared better on an unweighted new business premium (NBP) basis with 26 percent YoY growth in August 2019 led by LIC. YTD, industry APE growth improved to 19 percent YoY with private insurers growing at 23 percent and LIC at 16 percent, said JM Financial in its report.
However, the industry’s annual premium equivalent (APE) remained weak in August and came in at 6 percent YoY with private players growing at 16 percent. Among top players in the industry, HDFC Life outperformed peers followed by Max Life Insurance.
“We forecast industry APE CAGR of 16 percent over FY19-21E driven by a) low penetration, b) investment into online/direct distribution channels, and c) reduced competitive intensity from other saving products in a declining rate environment. HDFC Life remains the major beneficiary as private sector gained 5 percent YoY in APE market," said JM Financial.
Meanwhile, global brokerage houses Morgan Stanley and Macquarie in their research reports raised their target prices by 15 percent on an average, driven largely by improving value of new business (VNB) as opposed to banks. Top picks for both from the life insurance space is ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.
In a recent research report, Jefferies said, “Retail savings including retail protection for private industry grew 21 percent YoY for July in an environment where equity market momentum is weak. Mix shift from "return-pass through" to "return-guarantee" is the new reality and the business growth trends reflect the shifting priority of life insurance players.”
It further added, “HDFC Life had been an early mover, but we see growth moderating on a high base. ICICI Prudential & SBI Life were not aggressive in the segment earlier, but have started to grow fast in last few quarters.”
Motilal Oswal said: “Private players’ individual retail weighted received premium (WRP) market share contracted ~140bps YoY to ~56.3 percent in August, 2019 due to subdued growth, while LIC exhibited 17.7 percent YoY growth – highest in last four months. In August, 2019, SBI Life remained the largest private insurer in terms of individual WRP, followed by ICICI Prudential Life and HDFC Life.”
