Indian market can gain 20-25% in next 12 months, says Arvind Sanger of Geosphere Capital

Arvind Sanger, managing partner at Geosphere Capital Management and Richard Harris, chief executive of Port Shelter Investment shared their views on India and global markets.

“To me the Goldilocks for India would be no recession in US and Europe, easing of liquidity conditions by central bankers both in Europe and the US and India’s growth, by comparison, looks even better compared to slower growth on the West,” Sanger said on Thursday.

“The risk is that if the West is going into recession and we are 3 or 6 months away from that then that’s a headwind that the Indian market has never outperformed on a sustained basis,” he added.

According to Sanger, Indian market can gain 20-25 percent over the next 12 months, if the economy holds up.

"We are more inclined to buy rather than sell the Indian market at current levels", said Sanger.

Richard Harris of Port Shelter said, "We are seeing consumption going down which is driving yields lower."

On India front, Harris said, “The emerging markets to a certain extent can provide an element of diversification in equity markets whereas most global equity markets now seem to be quite closely correlated. So I think there is a possibility that India could continue to do okay.”

“If markets crash, if we are seeing recession elsewhere in the world, India is not going to be able to counteract that but talk of recession is a very long way away. So there is no indication around the world that we are actually in recession in almost any economy. We have very slow growth but we are not in recession,” he added.