Can India be what China was in the early 2000s? Insights from Manulife's Rana Gupta

The growing interest in the Indian market of late had led investors to increasingly wonder if India can potentially emulate China's economic boom in the early 2000s, says Rana Gupta, Senior Portfolio Manager at Manulife Investment Management.

In an interaction with CNBC-TV18, Gupta noted that India, with its $4 trillion economy and $4 trillion market capitalisation, represents a sizeable and fluid market. "India stands out significantly among emerging markets due to its size, growth potential, and the substantial value it can contribute," he added.

India's GDP growth for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24 surpassed expectations, coming in at 8.4% compared to the estimated 6.7%. The National Statistical Office's (NSO's) second advance estimate also projects a higher GDP growth rate of 7.6% for the entire fiscal year, up from the initial estimate of 7.3%.

In a recent interaction with CNBC-TV18, Mugunthan Siva, Managing Director of India Avenue Investment Management  had also pointed out that India is attracting long-term investors due to its strong economy and healthy corporate earnings growth. China, however, is seeing a surge in short-term interest.

“Seven years ago, it was very difficult to sell an 'India only' story and over the last one-two years, that story has become much easier to position simply because India’s growth rate stands out relative to the other economies,” he said, adding that investors might be adding some China exposure because the valuations are so cheap.

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China's economy, on the other hand, has been grappling with several key issues, including an unfolding property crisis and stubborn deflation. A recent stock market rout has underscored an erosion of investor confidence, despite Beijing’s attempt to turn things around, notably by unleashing more long-term cash for banks and broadening developer access to loans.

The latest factory production also decreased for the fifth consecutive month in February, indicating that low demand continues to pose a challenge for the economy.

Rana Gupta also shared his views on other global markets. He noted that the US and Japan continue to do well, but the US strength is largely tech led while Japan is driven more by the restructuring of businesses. He also pointed out that recently South Korea and some other ASEAN markets have also joined the list of strong performers.

Also Read | China factory activity slows as weak demand hampers growth

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video