Oil heads for quarterly advance as OPEC+ holds the line on cuts

Oil climbed to head for a solid quarterly gain on expectations OPEC+ supply cuts would tighten the global market.

West Texas Intermediate futures rose toward $82 a barrel after a modest two-day drop, with Brent crude above $86. The US crude benchmark has risen 14% this year, with key timespreads swinging from contango — a bearish pattern — to the opposite backwardated structure in that span.

OPEC+’s cuts of 2 million barrels a day have been extended to the end of June, underpinning expectations that global stockpiles will shrink. Ahead of a review meeting next week, delegates saw no need to recommend any changes as quotas were proving effective, according to several officials.

Crude’s revival in the first quarter has also been aided by Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and demand growth in Asian economies including India. Still, an increase in US nationwide crude and gasoline stockpiles in data this week has undercut some of the tightness, with non-OPEC+ oil supply continuing to expand.

The bullish backdrop has spurred some banks to warn there’s scope for higher prices, depending on how events pan out. While sticking with existing forecasts, JP Morgan Chase & Co. said this week there’s a path for Brent to hit triple-digits by September if the impact of Russia’s production cuts isn’t balanced out by other counter-measures.