Explained: Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on commodities

Russia has gone ahead and recognised the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and this is what the markets are perhaps calling ‘the invasion’. The next thing or the next step that the markets are factoring in right now is the stringent sanctions where the US has said that they will issue executive orders prohibiting new investment, trade and finance. There are also statements coming in from NATO, France, Germany, UK; the European Union will be looking at targeted sanctions as well on Russia.

How much of that would impact on investment, global trade and supplies of many of the commodities from Russia are what the street is getting jittery about.

Crude oil prices, which are trading at a seven-year high and is almost nudging that $100 per barrel mark in the international markets and Russia is the second-largest oil producer and exporter in the world. Actually, 12 percent of global exports come in from Russia and prices have gained by nearly 12 percent in this month alone, and they are up by 52 percent now from the past year itself, so strong gains continue in case of prices.

On metals, expect a price run-up in aluminium and nickel as well. Russia is the second-largest producer when it comes to aluminium and the aluminium prices are trading at the 13-year highs. Nearly 6 percent of global aluminium comes in from Russia and in the last one month or last one year, aluminium clearly has outperformed the metal sector. 8 percent of gains in this month and 52 percent up in the last year.

Nickel prices are trading at a 10-year high and nearly 10 percent of the global nickel comes in from Russia. Here as well the prices are surging quite strongly the last one month has seen 10 percent of gains and 28 percent of gains from that of last year.

For a ball-by-ball coverage of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, click here