Citi expects growth to slow down globally in 2024

Robert Sockin, Global Economist at Citi expects global growth to slow down in 2024 after the unexpected resilience observed in 2023.

Sockin highlighted that the majority of the predicted global growth slowdown is concentrated in developed markets, with indications that several may enter a recession, including the United States later in the year. Despite this, he pointed out that emerging markets are expected to fare relatively well during the slowdown.

“Most of the slowdown in global growth that we have for this year is concentrated in developed markets. We think a range of developed markets are going to go into recession, including the US later this year,” he said.

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Discussing monetary policy, Sockin mentioned that some emerging markets have already begun lowering interest rates, with expectations of more following suit throughout the year.

In contrast, he predicted that central banks in developed markets might start easing around mid-year, with the Federal Reserve likely to initiate rate cuts around July and the European Central Bank slightly earlier.

He noted the interconnectedness of monetary policies, emphasising that the pace at which emerging markets can ease their policies is influenced by the actions of developed market central banks.

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Sockin projects China's growth at about 4.6% in 2024, a slowdown from the 5.3% growth in 2023. He said this is a relatively manageable deceleration while stressing on the need of continued policy support from Chinese authorities to sustain growth.

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