Young India today to turn into a rapidly ageing society by 2050, reveals UN report | Dynamics explained

The elderly population in India is likely to double by 2050, said the India Ageing Report 2023 published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on Tuesday. The report said the share of older persons (over the age of 60 years) in India will double — from 10.5 percent as on July 2022 to 20.8 percent in 2050 — with the absolute number at 347 million. The UN report added that by the end of the century, the elderly will constitute over 36 percent of the total population of the country.

It added that the projections indicate that during 2022–2050, the overall population of India will grow by 18 percent only, while the older population will grow by 134 percent. "During the same period, the population of persons aged 80+ years will grow 279 percent," it said. At this time, "the widowed and highly dependent very old women" will become predominant.

Moreover, it is expected that four years before 2050, the population size of the elderly in India will be higher than the population size of children aged 0–14 years. "By that time, the population share of 15–59 years will also see a dip. Undoubtedly, the relatively young India today will turn into a rapidly ageing society in the coming decades," the report said.

The report projected this trend not just for India but for countries and regions across the world. "Over the next three decades, the number of older persons worldwide is expected to double to 2.1 billion by 2050, with the share rising to 22 percent of the total population," it said.

However, the situation will be slightly different for less developed countries. "The absolute number of older persons in less developed regions is likely to more than double from 772 million in 2022 to 1.7 billion in 2050.

In general, ageing is defined in terms of chronological age with a cut-off at 60 or 65 years - "in part because it broadly coincides with the age at retirement".

The report said, "At 60 years, a person in India may expect to live another 18.3 years, which is higher in the case of females at 19 years as compared to males at 17.5 years."

This simply means that the life expectancy of an average Indian is 78.3 years. In the case of women, it is 79 years, while in the case of men, it is, 77.5 years.

The unprecedented rise in the ageing population is likely to have significant implications for health, economy and society in India, the report says. It might result in financial pressure due to no income and increased dependency on family for support as "poverty is inherently gendered in old age."

Income insecurity is one of the major causes of vulnerability in old age. Also, low participation in the formal economy restricts access to fixed pensions and increases economic insecurity, the report said.

Simply put, a top-heavy age structure means that the elderly have to depend upon incomes and revenues generated by a dwindling number of younger workers.

It cited an LASI survey as indicating that around 33 percent of the older females have never worked and do not have any income. "A larger percentage of the male elderly belongs to the category of having ever worked or currently working but earn no income (25.9 percent) as compared to females (20.3 percent), it said.

Besides, ageing is also "associated with poor health status due to chronic morbid conditions and degenerating physiological capacity".

Moreover, loss of a spouse and consequent living arrangements increase dependency, and the inability to access social welfare benefits meant for them are some of the key problems faced by

the elderly in India.

"Preparing for the anticipated increase in the number of older persons and having the right policies and programmes for the well-being of the current and future older generations is one of the immediate priorities of the government and other relevant stakeholders," the report said.

It highlighted that policies and programmes must especially focus on the special needs of very old women as the number of older women compared to the number of older men will progressively increase

with advancing ages from 60 through 80 years.

With longevity and declining fertility rates, the population of older persons (60 years and above) is globally growing faster than the general population. The report said that three key demographic changes — declining fertility, reduction in mortality and increasing survival at older ages — contribute to population ageing. They reflect a shift in the age structure from young to old.