Monsoon predictions: These states may experience rain deficiency in coming days

This year, the monsoon has brought a mixed bag of rainfall patterns across different regions of India. "Rain is still deficient over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala," said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President-Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather Services.

This comes as a matter of concern for farmers in these regions as adequate rainfall is vital for the healthy growth of crops. Authorities are closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures to address the water scarcity concerns.

Meanwhile, RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said Kerala and Tamil Nadu may experience some rain deficiency in the coming days. “Some deficiency is there particularly in the southeast peninsula covering the Telangana and Andhra Pradesh,” he added.

In contrast to the rain-deficient regions, there's some respite for the Mumbai region as rains are expected to be moderate. The city, which frequently faces waterlogging and transportation disruptions during heavy downpours, might witness a more balanced pattern of rainfall in the coming days.

“Mumbai has recorded heavy to very heavy downpour. The intensity of rains is expected to go down over Mumbai. However, moderate showers with one-two intensive spells may continue and situation will start improving from tomorrow (July 21) onwards,” Palawat said.

On a positive note, the southern regions of Gujarat are expected to receive heavy rainfall on Thursday, replenishing water bodies and helping the agricultural sector in the state. However, authorities are also keeping an eye on potential challenges such as flooding that heavy rains may bring.

“Southern districts of Gujarat may receive heavy to very heavy rain for another two days and intensity of rain will be heavy over the parts of Maharashtra, Vidarbha, parts of Telangana, Chhattisgarh, South MP and parts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa,” Palawat mentioned.

Besides, the meteorological department predicts light rains for the northern parts of the country in the next few days. While this might not entirely compensate for the rain deficit experienced in June, it can still bring some relief to the region.

One silver lining amidst the variations in rainfall is that rains in July have covered the deficit observed in June in some areas. This is promising as it helps in balancing the overall seasonal rainfall and providing better prospects for agricultural activities.

There is hope for more rainfall than the average in July. Such above-average rainfall can prove beneficial for the economy, ensuring ample water supply and positively impacting agricultural output.

In the coming months, concerns may arise regarding the potential impact of El-Nino on India's monsoon. Mahesh Palawat suggested that the effects of El-Nino may become noticeable in August and September. El-Nino typically brings warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, which can influence weather patterns worldwide.

On the brighter side, Central India is likely to experience an active monsoon for the next three to four days. This could bring much-needed relief to states in the region, including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.