Why Indian exports are slowing down — experts dissect downtrend

There has been an unmistakable slowdown in exports. From $40 billion worth of exports June, there has been a steep fall to $32.6 billion in September. The downtrend started from July, when exports dropped to $35.2 billion. September exports are 20 percent less than in May and June.

Nor is it seasonal. For comparison, look at Indian exports in 2021 in the same months — but for the one-off month in June, exports inched up every month between April and September. Not so in 2022, where just the opposite has happened. The recession in the destination countries appears to be hitting the demand for Indian goods.

Coming to product-wise performance — exports of petroleum products and cereals were actively discouraged by the government. Some like pharma are by nature not subject to cycles. Again, electronics exports have been steadily rising. However, these are the exceptions because of PLI and China Plus One investments.

In reality, exports of most products declined from June onwards because of interest rate hikes and the onset of financial tightening in the export destinations.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Ajay Sahai, Director General and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) and Sharad Saraf, Chairman of Technocraft Industries, discussed at length how tough the environment is and if there are any signs of recovery.

Talking about engineering exports, Saraf said, “Month on month we are receiving either order cancellation or orders put on hold and this is happening mainly from Europe, where it is very dramatic, followed by the US. Asia so far is a bit okay. But engineering goods fall in Europe is very perceptible.”

Meanwhile, Sahai said, “We, at this point in time, have reached exports of around $230 billion. We expect that we may continue to reach around $460-470 billion but definitely, the situation has toughened up, and uncertainty has increased, which is bound to have an impact on global trade as well.”