Uneven rainfall impacts pulses, rice and other crops — Will there be a price hike? Experts weigh in

After enduring months of crop damage, caused either by heatwaves or unseasonal rainfall, farmers continue to face challenges due to uneven rainfall. Though some farmers initially found relief when the monsoons finally arrived, this respite was short-lived as the erratic rainfall has now impacted the Kharif season. Recent data reveals a significant decline in the sowing area for various crops this season, with the sowing area for different pulses dropping by over nine percent compared to last year.

The adverse effects of the uneven rainfall are evident in rice cultivation, which is predominantly grown in Punjab, Haryana, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh. Flood-like situations in Punjab and Haryana have led to damage to the water-intensive paddy crop in several districts.

Farmers are skeptical about re-sowing as a viable solution, fearing that it would undermine the four percent increase in paddy sowing area achieved this year. The damage is not limited to rice alone; vegetable and fruit crops have also suffered due to excessive rainfall in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh.

Data released by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reveals that till July 12, rainfall in eastern and north-eastern states was 19 percent below the average, while the southern states experienced a 23 percent deficit.

In contrast, the north-western states received rainfall that was 59 percent above average. These variations in rainfall distribution have further compounded the challenges faced by farmers in different regions.

Considering the current situation, experts are concerned that the shortage in crop output, particularly in pulses, may lead to a higher food import bill. The sowing window for pulses has already closed, and there has been a significant drop of over nine percent in the sowing area for pulses this year.

Pushan Sharma, Director of CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, told CNBC-TV18 that a 7 to 8 percent decline in pulses production could result in a price hike. To mitigate the situation, the focus will shift towards importing pulses, with a keen eye on how imports from African countries may help.

Some experts foresee that the pulses and cereal inflation could remain in double digits for a considerable period, possibly prompting the government to implement additional measures to control prices. Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, pointed out that the government has already imposed restrictions on wheat and rice exports, and imports are expected to address the issues related to pulses. These measures are aimed at curbing food inflation.

Despite these measures, farmers argue that the impact may be limited because the full extent of the damage caused by the irregular rainfall has not yet been fully revealed or taken into account. The uncertainty surrounding the actual consequences of the uneven rainfalls adds to their concerns.

This year's delayed monsoon was the first indicator that the rainfall pattern can cause damage to Kharif crops. The year started with adverse weather conditions, proving to be disastrous for multiple key crops. First, onion crops were damaged due to a heat wave.

Then the unseasonal rainfall destroyed over 18 kinds of standing crops ranging from chickpeas to wheat and maize, to tomatoes, cashew and mangoes. These were Rabi crops. Then came a delay in the monsoons and Kharif crops like tomatoes, egg-plant, beans and bottle gourd took a hit as well.