Monsoon onset delay casts shadow on agriculture sector

Uncertainty looms over India's agriculture sector once again as it grapples with the consequences of climate change. Following extreme heatwaves and unprecedented rainfall, the possible delay in the onset of the monsoon season casts a fresh shadow over the sector.

Farmers eagerly await the arrival of the monsoon for a favorable sowing season for key crops like rice, cotton, corn, soybean, and sugar cane. However, the delay in monsoon onset will significantly impact agricultural activities and pose challenges for farmers.

Pratik Gadia, Founder & CEO of The Yarn Bazaar, shed light on the ramifications of the delayed monsoon, stating, “We have already witnessed its direct impact on prices. Sowing in India relies heavily on the monsoon, and the delayed onset is a cause for concern, particularly in Punjab. Reports indicate that sowing in Punjab has been declining over the past decade, which is alarming.”

Gadia further added, “However, considering the current demand for cotton exports, both domestically and internationally, which has not been substantial, we anticipate ending this year with a closing stock of around 20 lakh bales. If we have a high closing stock and the sowing is not satisfactory, we can manage for the next year.”

The delayed onset of the monsoon also raises concerns about irrigation. Randhir Chauhan, MD of Netafim India, emphasised the significance of drip irrigation in addressing this issue. He highlighted, “States like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka have made significant progress in adopting drip irrigation. While other states hold great potential, this delay introduces uncertainty, whether it be a late or early end to the monsoon season. Drip technology can serve as a mitigating factor by allowing efficient water usage, consuming only 50 percent of the water required for flood irrigation. Overall, I remain optimistic about the entire drip irrigation space this year.”

Karthik Jayaraman, Co-Founder & MD of WayCool Foods, a company specialising in food development and distribution, expressed his perspective on the potential impact of the monsoon delay.

He stated, “A delay of up to a week or ten days might not have a significant impact. However, if the delay extends beyond that, it could affect sowing. Although the probability of a delay coupled with deficiency in the early stages is low, it could impact rain-fed crops.”

Jayaraman also pointed out the potential effect of El Niño, stating, “More interesting than the delays themselves is the effect of El Niño. My guess is that it will not have a substantial impact this year, as its effects are expected in the second half of the year. Besides, rice and other crops in Northwest India, which may be affected, rely not only on rainfall but also on irrigation. Nonetheless, we will need to closely monitor the ongoing effects.”

As India awaits the timely arrival of the monsoon, the agricultural sector braces for the potential challenges posed by its delay. The resilience and adaptability of farmers, along with the adoption of advanced irrigation techniques, will play crucial roles in mitigating the impact of climate variability and ensuring the stability of India's agricultural production.